Why do domestic experts still believe in economic growth above 8%?

Accelerating the disbursement of public investment creates a major impetus for growth.

On September 30, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released its September 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO).

ADB experts assess that the surge in exports prior to the US imposition of new tariffs, along with supportive government policies, boosted Vietnam's economic growth in the first half of 2025. However, growth is projected to slow down in the remainder of the year due to the impact of retaliatory tariffs effective from August 7, 2025. While the domestic economy remains stable, growth is expected to slow compared to the strong surge in the first half of 2025.

Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, said that the ADB has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam up to 6.7% from the previous forecast, thanks to robust domestic demand.

Regarding monetary policy, the State Bank of Vietnam maintains a supportive monetary policy. Accordingly, the State Bank has kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 4.5% since 2023, while maintaining ample liquidity in the open market. As of the end of August 2025, credit had increased by 11.8% compared to the end of 2024 and by 19.9% compared to the same period last year, thereby increasing the demand for capital mobilization. The ADB forecasts that credit will reach or exceed the 16% target for the whole year by the end of 2025, but warns about asset quality and predicts an increase in non-performing loans in the short term.

Shantanu Chakraborty stated: “Better coordination between effective fiscal and monetary policy implementation will help avoid putting excessive pressure on monetary instruments and ensure macroeconomic stability. In the long term, comprehensive legal reforms need to address structural challenges such as ensuring climate change resilience, promoting private sector competitiveness, improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, modernizing the tax system, and digital transformation. These are key elements for a more balanced growth model.”

ADB experts noted that the retaliatory tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnam—20% on imports and 40% on transit goods—pose risks of a short-term slowdown in economic growth. For the remainder of the year, these tariffs are expected to impact trade and investment, underscoring the urgent need for structural reforms to foster a more balanced growth model, supported by stronger domestic demand and more diversified export markets, in order to mitigate tariff-related shocks.

Regarding inflation, the ADB forecasts it to reach 3.9% in 2025 and decline slightly to 3.8% in 2026. Lower global energy prices have contributed to reduced transportation costs – a significant component of the consumer goods basket.

"With a favorable fiscal position, the government can implement growth stimulus measures through targeted tax cuts, reduced compliance costs for businesses, and increased social spending for low-income households. Coordinating structural reforms to improve the business environment and labor productivity will maximize effectiveness," the ADB report emphasized.

While maintaining a positive outlook for Vietnam in the 2025-2026 period, the report also highlights several risks stemming from both global uncertainties and domestic factors.

If the global economic environment worsens than expected due to slower growth in major trading partners and increased financial market volatility, the challenges to the economy will increase. Domestically, although reforms to public investment have yielded initial results, increased financial risks and delays in policy coordination could limit the effectiveness of growth stimulus measures...

Prior to the ADB, several international organizations also predicted Vietnam's growth would be around 6.5% this year, but many domestic experts still believe that the government's growth target of 8.3-8.5% this year is entirely achievable.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, if Vietnam can disburse the entire public investment plan assigned by the Prime Minister in 2025, GDP growth could improve by an additional 1.8 to 2 percentage points. Dr. Can Van Luc believes this is a positive factor, but it is not yet fully reflected in the forecasts of international organizations, leading them to continue making relatively cautious GDP growth forecasts for Vietnam, which do not fully reflect the growth potential from public investment.

Furthermore, Vietnam is actively working to resolve difficulties for approximately 3,000 stalled projects with a total value of 6 trillion VND. If just 10% of these projects are released each year, the economy would have an additional 600,000 billion VND injected annually, creating more room to boost growth.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/vi-sao-chuyen-gia-trong-nuoc-van-tin-tang-truong-kinh-te-tren-8-d397770.html