Mutated H3N2 virus could spark flu outbreak in Asia

Many Asian countries are facing a sharp increase in flu cases, prompting health experts to warn that humans may have to live with year-round flu epidemics amid climate change and shifting global infection patterns.

According to Time magazine (USA), as early as October 3, the Japanese Ministry of Health , Labor and Welfare declared a nationwide flu outbreak, 5 weeks earlier than usual and the second earliest outbreak in the past 20 years. During the week from September 22 to 28, more than 4,000 people in Japan were treated for flu, with an average rate of 1.04 patients per monitored medical facility - exceeding the epidemic warning threshold. This number increased to more than 6,000 people in the following week (September 29 - October 5), equivalent to 1.56 patients per facility, double the same period last year.

As of early October, 135 schools and childcare facilities had been temporarily closed due to flu outbreaks, three times more than the same period in 2024. Of Japan's 47 prefectures, 28 have reported an increase in cases, with Okinawa having the highest rate.

Not only Japan, many other countries in the region such as Singapore, Thailand and India are also witnessing a similar trend. In India, especially in the northern states, the influenza A/H3N2 strain is spreading strongly. According to Dr. Martin Beer, Deputy Director of the German Federal Institute for Animal Health Friedrich Loeffler, H3N2 is a variant originating from the virus strain that caused the "Hong Kong flu" pandemic in 1968, which was formed from the recombination of human and bird influenza viruses.

Seasonal flu is a disease caused by four types of influenza viruses: A, B, C, and D, of which influenza A and B viruses often cause epidemics in humans. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that flu has similar symptoms to the common cold, but the cause and spread of the disease are different.

Some scientists believe that the earlier emergence of flu outbreaks in Asia and Europe in 2025 may reflect a trend of flu viruses mutating to spread faster and no longer following distinct seasons.

Professor Yoko Tsukamoto, Hokkaido University of Health Sciences (Japan), commented: "This year's flu season started very early, and in the context of global climate change, this could become a common trend in the future."

Meanwhile, Nicola Lewis, director of the Global Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute in the UK, warned that the next global pandemic is likely to be caused by an influenza virus. "The likelihood of 'disease X' - an unknown disease - originating from an influenza virus is probably higher than any other group of pathogens we know of," Lewis predicted.

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