VN-Index can reach 1,850 points but what are the potential risks?

(NLDO) - The nearest resistance level of the stock market valuation P/E is 18x - equivalent to VN-Index above 1,858 points.

VN-Index is currently trading at 1,530 points, surpassing the historical peak in early 2022, with the explosion of many stock groups and massive cash flow.

What is the biggest risk?

On forums, many investors enthusiastically discuss, comment, and ask about which stocks they can buy, hold, or "surf"...

Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis for Individual Clients, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that the VN-Index recorded the strongest growth last week, setting a new closing price, leading the growth ranking compared to other markets but has not yet reached the stage of overheating.

The market valuation (P/E) of VN-Index is close to the 10-year average as this peak price is still lower than the peak in 2021 (the cheap money period) and 2018 (the IPO and upgrade period).

Meanwhile, the 2025 period, which combines the factors of monetary policy easing cycle, strong growth target 2025-2030 and stock market upgrade, shows that the P/E level is expected to soon exceed the 10-year average.

The stock market has been trading well for many consecutive weeks, VN-Index is predicted to be able to set new peaks.

"The nearest resistance of VN-Index after surpassing the 10-year average is 1,858 points. Therefore, in the short term, the market may soon experience a correction after the recent strong increase," said Mr. The Minh.

Mr. Nguyen Tan Phong, analyst, Pinetree Securities Company, said the general market is currently positive and the trend depends a lot on Vingroup stocks and foreign capital flows.

In the worst case, if Vingroup stocks are strongly adjusted or foreign capital flows are no longer strong enough to pull the market, it will likely negatively affect the VN-Index.

There are also several factors that will impact the market this week, such as the announcement of second-quarter business results by major companies; US President Donald Trump officially announced tariffs on August 1.

However, in an uptrend, there are always deep corrections to shake off clinging investors.

Therefore, investors should not chase (FOMO) new stocks, especially stocks that have increased rapidly. They can even divide the portfolio into many parts to optimize profits.

Every increase of VN-Index is a new peak

Experts from MBS Securities Company stated that this week will also be a historic week for the VN-Index. Any increase will be a new peak (according to closing price); the cash flow also showed its strength with a reference level of VND43,000 billion/session on all 3 floors. Investors' expectations and the probability of setting new highs for the market this week are currently quite high.

VN-Index increased for 5 consecutive weeks, surpassing the peak of 1,530 points

In a cautious scenario, MBS experts believe that any slowdown in the VN-Index on a high liquidity basis will be a signal for investors to reduce their margin (margin loan) or portfolio weight to a safe level.

From a valuation perspective, if it surpasses the all-time high of 1,536 points, in the short term, VN-Index may head towards the target zone of 1,550 points or 1,620 points. The support zone for the market in a short-term correction scenario is at 1,500 points.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/vn-index-dang-huong-den-1850-diem-196250728092132582.htm