Three scenarios for Hanoi's population by 2030

The Capital Planning Consulting Unit has proposed three scenarios for population growth by 2030, with the highest being 11 million, 2.5 million people higher than the current figure.

On the morning of November 21, the Hanoi Party Committee held a workshop on planning the capital for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050.

On behalf of the consulting consortium, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that population growth and large immigration to Hanoi create many challenges and great pressure on technical infrastructure, society, environment and quality of life of people, especially in the old inner city area. Meanwhile, socio-economic development and population change are a two-way relationship that affects the sustainable development of the city.

To have an input basis for developing the planning project, the consultant proposed three scenarios for Hanoi's population development by 2030 and 2050.

Mr. Hoang Van Cuong spoke at the workshop on the morning of November 21. Photo: Hoang Phong

Specifically, scenario 1 , the population grows at the same rate as in the past (about 150,000 people per year), by 2030 there will be about 9.5 million people and by 2050 about 11.2 million people.

Scenario 2 , population grows rapidly in the period 2023 - 2030 and gradually stabilizes in the period 2030 - 2050, by 2030 the population reaches about 10.5 million and by 2050 about 13 million people.

Scenario 3 , the consultant forecasts a rapid population growth with breakthrough socio-economic development conditions, the capital's labor market is very attractive to residents from other provinces, and at the same time, population regulation measures are ineffective. According to this scenario, the permanent population by 2030 will reach about 11 million and by 2050 about 14 million people.

Hanoi population size in the period 2015 - 2022. Source: Hanoi City

Mr. Dao Ngoc Nghiem, Vice President of the Vietnam Urban Planning and Development Association, said that the current population size of Hanoi exceeds the forecast threshold of the 2011 Capital Master Plan (Plan 1259) and the population distribution is not as per the development orientation.

Statistics in 2020 show that the capital's population is 8.24 million people, exceeding the target set by the 1259 plan of 7.3-7.9 million, with an average increase of 2.29% per year; of which, the urban population accounts for 49.3% (the plan sets the rate at 58-60%), and the rural area accounts for 50.7%.

From the above reality, Mr. Nghiem said that the planning work for Hanoi Capital in the period of 2021-2030 must be carefully researched and synchronously considered factors affecting the population to make reasonable forecasts.

Meanwhile, former Vice Chairman of the Hanoi People's Council Le Van Hoat also raised the issue that the population in the central urban area and the historic inner city area is now higher than the control threshold in Planning 1259.

Specifically, according to the approved master plan, the population size in the historic inner city area including the four districts of Hoan Kiem, Ba Dinh, Dong Da and Hai Ba Trung is oriented to decrease from 1.2 million (July 1, 2008) to nearly 920 thousand people (2020) and 800 thousand people (2030). However, according to the 2019 Population and Housing Census, as of April 1, 2019, the current population in this area is still about more than 1 million people.

Population growth beyond forecasts has led to overloading of urban infrastructure, including traffic. In the photo, Nguyen Trai Street is often congested during rush hour. Photo: Vo Hai

Mr. Hoat also pointed out a series of other problems after 10 years of implementing the general planning of the capital. These are satellite cities (Hoa Lac, Son Tay, Xuan Mai, Phu Xuyen, Soc Son) and green belts that are basically still "on paper"; after 10 years, there has been no list of old villas and other architectural works built before 1954 that are damaged, degraded, and need investment in restoration and renovation; the proportion of land for traffic and the proportion of public passenger transport have not reached the planned targets...

"Planners just make plans, doers just do them," the former Vice Chairman of the City People's Council stated. He also said that planning adjustments were not well managed and controlled, leading to many urban areas that were initially very beautiful and synchronous but after a period of construction, they were adjusted to "become ugly, fragmented, and patchy, typically the Linh Dam urban area...".

According to the original plan, the Capital Planning Project for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050, would be approved by the City People's Council and submitted to the Prime Minister to report to the National Assembly in early December, before the Prime Minister considers and approves it at the end of this year. However, the announcement of the agenda for the City People's Council meeting next month does not include any content related to this planning project, so the consideration and approval of the project will have to be postponed to 2024.

Vo Hai

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