The stock market increased positively in the first morning session of the week thanks to the pulling force of pillar groups such as Vingroup - Photo: QUANG DINH
Opening the first session of the week, VN-Index increased strongly with nearly 15 points when the morning session ended. With the ceiling increase, VIC shined again and contributed to the positive score.
Great contributions of Vingroup and Gelex groups
Last weekend, the VN-Index closed at 1,495.21 points after setting a new record of 1,566.74 - the highest level in the history of Vietnamese stocks. Since the beginning of the year, this index has grown by 18.03%.
But when removing the capitalization factor from the calculation of the VN-Index, the average actual increase of all 390 stocks listed on HoSE (excluding TAL - the new stock listed on August 1), this index only increased by about 9.1% in the same period.
The large gap between the two numbers shows that the market is not really increasing widely, most of the upward momentum of VN-Index comes from some large-cap stocks, especially Vingroup and Gelex groups with many stocks reaching a capitalization scale of over 1 billion USD.
In the Vingroup group, VIC shares have increased by 156.5% since the beginning of the year, closely followed by VHM with an increase of 124.8%, while VRE and VPL increased by 65.9% and 1.74% respectively. The Gelex group is not far behind with GEX increasing by 213.2%, GEE increasing by 336.9% and VIX achieving a growth rate of 180%.
According to data from Vietstock , if the contributions of the above stocks to the VN-Index's performance are added together, the Vingroup group contributed 130.73 points, while the Gelex group contributed 24.04 points. In total, these two groups of stocks have "carried" more than 154 points - equivalent to nearly 68% of the market's total increase since the beginning of the year.
In other words, without the explosive growth from names like VIC, VHM or GEX, the VN-Index might only increase by about 50-75 points. This is a much more modest increase than the expectations of the majority of investors who are looking at the figure of 1,566 points with optimism.
Analytical and forecast perspective
Mr. Bui Van Huy, director of investment research at FIDT, commented that the growth momentum in 2025 is not as exciting as the index shows.
Mr. Huy emphasized to short-term investors that understanding and feeling the flow of the market is very important, because the "green exterior, red interior" situation still occurs, even when the index increases sharply.
From a long-term perspective, Mr. Huy assessed that the current market valuation is no longer cheap. As of the end of July, the P/E ratio of VN-Index has exceeded the historical average, while the P/B ratio is approaching the average.
For investors following a value strategy, this may be the right time to take partial profits in hot stocks, while restructuring the portfolio to sectors with reasonable valuations.
Meanwhile, expert Nguyen The Minh commented that the stocks of Vingroup and Gelex played a leading role in helping the market reach the "peak of a new era".
However, he also warned that last week there were signs of a correction, although the decline was not large.
In the context that the index is strongly dominated by a number of pillars, observing the nature of cash flow, the rotation between industry groups and being cautious with correction signals will be a more suitable strategy than relying only on the surface numbers of the VN-Index.
The new market peak is a positive signal, but investors should not forget that the current valuation level is no longer cheap, and the market can always change direction when the "drivers" get tired.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/co-phieu-vingroup-vua-kich-tran-chung-khoan-that-su-tang-ra-sao-khi-thieu-hai-ong-lon-20250804112208418.htm
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