Birth rate forecast to continue to decline next year

Director of the Department of Population Le Thanh Dung said that the population work in 2024 has achieved some encouraging results. Among them, the dossier proposing the drafting of the Population Law has been completed to report to the Government for consideration and inclusion in the 2025 Law drafting program.

However, according to the summary reports from localities, the population work has only completed 1/3 of the assigned targets. That is, the real average life expectancy is 74.5 years, exceeding the planned target (73.8 years); 2 targets on the sex ratio of newborn children and the total fertility rate have not been completed.

Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong spoke at the conference.

The new professional targets have only completed 1/8 of that target, which is the total number of new users of modern contraceptive methods.

It can be seen that 2024 is the first year of implementing population work according to the model of the Central Population Department. Population work is currently facing a number of emerging problems: the birth rate has decreased below the replacement level for 3 consecutive years and is forecast to continue to decrease in the coming time if there are no appropriate measures and solutions.

Despite many interventions, the sex ratio remains high and shows no signs of decreasing; there is no comprehensive, effective, and synchronous solution to adapt to population aging. Average life expectancy is high, but the number of healthy years is low.

In order to achieve high efficiency in population work in 2025, the Department of Population recommends that the Department of Population of provinces and cities implement the goal of firmly maintaining the replacement fertility rate; minimizing gender imbalance at birth; taking care of the health of the elderly, focusing on comprehensively and synchronously resolving issues of population size, structure and quality.

Prenatal and newborn screening is a solution to detect early abnormalities in fetuses and newborns, thereby contributing to improving population quality.

According to the Department of Population, in 2025, the population work set a target for average life expectancy (from birth) of 74.6 years; sex ratio of newborn children of 111 boys/100 girls; total fertility rate of 2.1 children/woman.

In 2025, Vietnam strives to reduce the sex ratio at birth by 0.2 percentage points compared to 2024; adjust the birth rate (0.3‰ compared to 2024. More than 5 million new people will use modern contraceptive methods in 2025. 50% of pregnant women will be screened (prenatally screened) for 4 diseases (Down, Edward, Patau, Thalassemia).

70% of newborns are screened (newborn screening), with all 5 diseases (congenital hypothyroidism, G6PD deficiency, congenital adrenal hyperplasia, congenital hearing loss, congenital heart disease). The rate of young men and women receiving pre-marital health consultation and examination increases by 8% compared to 2024. The rate of elderly people receiving periodic health examinations at least once a year increases by 10% compared to 2024.

Director of the Department of Population Le Thanh Dung spoke at the conference.

In order for population work to gradually find drastic solutions for 2025 and the following years, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong requested the Department of Population to focus all resources on institutional improvement. Specifically, that is to complete the draft Population Law to submit to the National Assembly at the 10th session (2025) to put Resolution 21-NQ/TW into practice.

Along with that, the Department of Population proactively developed 3 projects assigned in Resolution No. 68 NQ/CP dated May 9, 2024 of the Government to submit to competent authorities. The unit organized an assessment of the results of 5 years of implementing the Vietnam Population Strategy; reviewed and summarized the programs and projects on population approved by the Prime Minister to propose adjustments and implementation in the period of 2026-2030.

At the same time, the Department of Population coordinates with relevant agencies/units in allocating resources for population work to ensure the implementation of 12 population programs and projects approved by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Health.

In addition, the Department of Population needs to urgently complete the draft guidelines for implementing population work in 2025 and send them to localities; focus on directing, guiding, and urging provinces/cities to mobilize resources as well as professional expertise on population to effectively implement population targets according to the plan set out in 2025 and the period 2021-2025.

Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/du-bao-muc-sinh-tiep-tuc-giam-trong-nam-toi.html