The price of SJC gold bars suddenly "surged" again from the beginning of August 2025 after more than 3 months of moving sideways around the threshold of 120 million VND/tael. According to experts, in addition to the impact of rising world gold prices, it was the scarce domestic supply that pushed the price of gold bars past the record level in April 2025.
Gold price hits new peak
On August 7, the price of SJC gold bars continued to increase sharply to 124.1 million VND/tael, surpassing the highest level since the peak in mid-April 2025. By the end of the day, the price of SJC gold bars was adjusted down to 123.8 million VND/tael, but was still nearly 3 million VND/tael higher than at the end of July.
In the international market, the world gold price also recorded an upward trend. Gold was traded around 3,376 USD/ounce - the highest in the past 2 weeks.
The price of SJC gold bars is maintaining at the highest level in the past month. Photo: LAM GIANG
According to gold expert Tran Duy Phuong, the global gold price has been climbing due to the direct impact of changes in US economic policies. The Trump administration's announcement of high tariffs on goods exported from India and Japan has had a major impact on the market. In addition, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in September 2025 have further reinforced the upward trend in gold prices.
Mr. Tran Duy Phuong commented that although there may be some short-term adjustments, in the long term, especially at the end of the year, the world gold price is still likely to reach the mark of 3,500 USD/ounce.
Mr. Shaokai Fan, Director of Asia- Pacific (excluding China) and Director of Global Central Banks at the World Gold Council (WGC), also has a similar perspective. He commented that the US President's administration has unpredictable policies, especially in the field of trade, when tensions between the US and India, as well as developments in the US-China relationship still contain many uncertainties. These are factors that can continue to push gold prices up in the coming time.
In addition, central banks around the world still have room to cut interest rates. This also contributes to supporting the upward trend of gold prices.
The WGC's Q2/2025 trend report shows that total global gold demand will reach 1,249 tons, up 3% compared to the same period in 2024. Of which, central banks will continue to play a supporting role by purchasing an additional 166 tons of gold (China ranks fourth among the countries that buy the most gold).
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, domestic gold demand has declined. In the second quarter of this year, gold demand in Vietnam decreased by 20% compared to the same period last year - only 9 tons, mainly due to high domestic gold prices affecting people's purchasing power.
However, in USD terms, the total value of gold investment in Vietnam still increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, reaching 997 million USD. The gold jewelry segment also witnessed a similar decline of 20%.
Gold selling business drop by drop
Although the price of SJC gold has surpassed its historical peak, the market still records a situation of "many buyers, few sellers".
At the headquarters of Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) in Ho Chi Minh City on August 7, many people came to buy gold but were limited to 1 tael per time. If they wanted to buy more, they had to line up from the beginning. Ms. Nhat Hoang - a customer living in Nhieu Loc Ward, Ho Chi Minh City - said she bought 1.3 taels the day before and came back to buy 1 more tael to save, "the price doesn't matter".
The shortage is not only happening at SJC but also at many other systems such as PNJ, DOJI, Mi Hong… Many stores are running out of SJC gold bars and gold rings. An employee at a DOJI store said that gold is only available when customers bring it to sell, because the supply from official channels is almost non-existent.
The leader of a gold company in Ho Chi Minh City explained that most of the gold bars on the market today are just bought and sold between people, leading to a shortage of supply. Meanwhile, the demand for buying is still high, making it difficult for gold prices to cool down.
"However, the scale of transactions in the market is no longer as vibrant as before. Because the amount of gold sold is small, the market is gradually shrinking," he explained.
According to Mr. Tran Duy Phuong, the price of SJC gold bars is facing two major risks: the price difference is too high compared to the world price and domestic policy factors.
"If the State Bank allows gold imports to produce gold bars, domestic gold prices may cool down and narrow the gap with world prices. This means that current gold buyers may face the risk of losing capital when prices are adjusted," the expert commented.
Proposal to develop a Law on Gold Business Management
The unusual fluctuations in domestic gold prices have caused many people to hoard this precious metal and limit spending on other goods, negatively affecting consumer purchasing power and economic growth.
Faced with this reality, voters in Hai Phong City have proposed that the State Bank study and develop a Law on Gold Trading Management, and submit it to the Government and the National Assembly for consideration and promulgation. Thereby, there will be a mechanism to manage gold trading activities, ensuring stable domestic gold prices, consistent with world gold prices.
Responding to voters, the State Bank said that Vietnam is not a gold mining country, so domestic gold consumption is mainly from imported sources. Therefore, domestic gold prices depend on world gold price movements.
In Vietnam, other less attractive investment channels (gloomy corporate bond market, difficult real estate market, low interest rates...) have increased speculation and gold hoarding by people and businesses, causing gold prices to fluctuate strongly. The State Bank only intervenes when gold prices fluctuate negatively, affecting the foreign exchange market, exchange rates or monetary policy.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/gia-vang-van-bien-dong-kho-luong-196250807213054782.htm
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