Weekly stock market perspective: VN-Index usually increases before September 2nd holiday, showing signs of peaking

According to Yuanta Vietnam statistics, the VN-Index had an average increase of 1% and 1.4% in the week before the September 2 holiday, which was also maintained after the holiday, but tended to narrow as the market entered an unfavorable cycle in September.

After a week of increasing points beyond the psychological mark of 1,600 points. The market became excited.

Continuing to increase strongly, VN-index is heading towards the 1,700 point price zone with many positive information from the banking and large-cap groups. The market is diverging and starting to face selling pressure, creating peaks in many groups of stocks in the last 3 sessions of the week. VN-index decreased sharply in the last session of the week. At the end of the week, VN-index still increased by 0.95% to 1,645.47 points, above the psychological mark of 1,600 points. Meanwhile, VN30 increased by 1.73% to 1,814.02 points, above the mark of 1,800 points.

Market breadth is negative, selling pressure is increasing sharply, liquidity is sudden in most groups of codes such as seafood, steel, fertilizer, chemicals, insurance, technology, telecommunications, securities, textiles, construction... except for some groups of codes that still increased in price compared to last week such as banking and oil and gas.

Market liquidity set a new record with a value of VND282,000 billion. Trading volume on HOSE increased by 9.2% compared to last week, averaging nearly 1.9 billion shares/session this week. However, it showed strong distribution pressure on high price ranges of many groups of codes.

Foreign investors continued to net sell strongly with a value of -7,691 billion VND on HOSE this week.

The VN-Index continued to lead the growth last week. At the same time, the Chinese stock market also recorded higher growth. The notable point last week was that the USD index had a recovery in growth despite a sharp decline at the end of the week after the Fed signaled a rate cut in September 2025. In general, the growth of the USD index mainly came from the weakening momentum of the stock market last week.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Development of Individual Clients at Yuanta Securities Vietnam, noted that the growth rating of 98 points of the VN-Index is considered very high and there will not be much room for further increase.

September is often a “negative season”, with selling pressure increasing due to many factors such as: fund portfolio rebalancing, cautious sentiment before the third quarter business results announcement season, or global macro- political instability.

Historical statistics will not necessarily repeat themselves, but they are a warning factor as the stock market has had strong growth in August 2025 and valuation risks are increasing.

However, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September 2025 could also be a supportive factor for the stock market, but there is also a possibility that the stock market will adjust before reversing the upward trend later.

Source: Cidatel Securities

The chart of personal cash flow over the years with low proportions in May, September, December every year shows that small investors also limit transactions in these months. Thus, this statistical result further reinforces the statistics on the growth rate of the stock market in September which is also not positive over the years in the stock markets.

VN-Index developments before and after September 2nd holiday. Source: YSVN

According to Yuanta Vietnam statistics, the VN-Index increased by an average of 1% and 1.4% in the three days and five days before the September 2 holiday. At the same time, the VN-Index's growth momentum was also maintained after the holiday, but tended to narrow as the market entered an unfavorable cycle in September.

According to SHS Securities Company experts, the market and VN-index have shown signs of peaking in the hot growth, rotation, and speculation in most industry groups.

The speculative increase phase has ended, with strong short-term leverage. VN30 is under strong selling pressure at 1,880 points, VN-index is under selling pressure around 1,700 points. With these developments, VN-index may continue to be under pressure to correct to the price range around 1,600 points.

Speculation peak, the best policy is to run away - this is the market development in the last sessions of this week. In the news reports this week, SHS experts emphasized the titles "High-priced selling, narrowing opportunities", "Banks relay. Peaks and abysses" to emphasize the warning about the risk zone, the peak of many codes, as well as the phenomenon of increasing speculation.

SHS Research recommends that investors closely monitor market developments, speculative positions, and structure, and carefully evaluate their portfolios and consider selling weakened stocks. After a period of overheating and strong selling pressure, short-term speculative positions will decline.

The market will slow down and liquidity will gradually decrease after continuously maintaining above VND50,000 billion in recent weeks. The market will return to basic valuation factors and based on the expectation of the upcoming third quarter business results after the hot growth period.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-vn-index-thuong-tang-truoc-le-29-co-dau-hieu-dinh-d369756.html