HSBC raises Vietnam growth forecast to nearly 8%, leading ASEAN

(Chinhphu.vn) - HSBC Bank assessed that Vietnam is maintaining the leading growth rate in the region. After GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 8.2%, HSBC raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 7.9%, showing that the economy is recovering comprehensively.

HSBC Bank assesses that Vietnam is maintaining the leading growth rate in the region.

Public investment and FDI fuel growth

The report "Vietnam at a glance - Keep moving forward" by HSBC Global Investment Research released on October 28 shows that Vietnam continues to record outstanding growth in the region. GDP in the third quarter increased by 8.2%, far exceeding market forecasts and maintaining its position as the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia. This is the second consecutive quarter with growth exceeding 8%, affirming a sustainable recovery.

According to HSBC, this result reflects a comprehensive recovery of the economy, not only in manufacturing but also in services and consumption. While many ASEAN countries have seen exports slow down due to the slowdown in "early order" (frontloading) activities, Vietnam's trade still increased by double digits, showing its flexible adaptability and effective market expansion.

Industrial production in the third quarter increased by 10% compared to the same period last year; import-export turnover increased by nearly 20%. Trade surplus doubled in the first half of the year thanks to expanding exports to markets outside the US. HSBC assessed this as a testament to Vietnam's central role in the regional supply chain.

Electronics, especially consumer appliances and components, continued to drive growth. Exports to the US increased by nearly 30% thanks to strong demand for artificial intelligence products. "Vietnam is becoming an important link in the global technology supply chain," the report said.

At the same time, the service sector and domestic consumption have recovered clearly. Retail sales in the third quarter increased by 12%, reflecting improved consumer confidence. Tourism leads the region with 15 million international arrivals, equivalent to 120% of pre-pandemic levels. Notably, the number of Chinese visitors has increased sharply despite not being exempted from visas, affirming the attractiveness and competitiveness of Vietnam as a destination.

According to HSBC, public investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) continue to be key drivers. In the third quarter, actual investment increased by nearly 10% year-on-year, but disbursement progress only reached about 50% of the annual plan. FDI increased by 15% year-on-year, with Singapore, China and the US being the three largest investors.

This year’s FDI structure has seen a notable change: Singapore and mainland China each account for about 25% of the total newly registered capital, while South Korea’s market share has decreased, giving way to the US. This shift shows that Vietnam remains a safe and attractive destination amid volatile global trade.

On the other hand, actual consumption in the third quarter increased by more than 8% compared to the same period last year, showing solid domestic demand. The transport, accommodation and tourism sectors continued to record high growth, contributing to strengthening the overall recovery momentum.

The macro environment remains stable: inflation at 3.4%, credit growth high. Flexible monetary policy helps balance economic stability and growth support. The State Bank targets credit growth in 2025 at 19-20% to support the economy, especially the production and consumption sectors.

HSBC raises Vietnam GDP forecast to 7.9% - highest in ASEAN

In response to the positive results, HSBC has sharply raised its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 from 6.6% to 7.9% and in 2026 from 5.8% to 6.7% – the highest among ASEAN economies. At the same time, the bank slightly adjusted its inflation forecast to 3.3% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026.

HSBC said Vietnam stands out thanks to the balance between three pillars: manufacturing, services and investment. Policies to stabilize the macro economy, control prices and promote infrastructure have helped maintain high growth rates while attracting quality FDI flows.

In particular, embracing the new wave of technology, especially in the electronics and AI sectors, is opening up opportunities for Vietnam to rise up the global value chain. HSBC assesses that if it improves the speed of public investment disbursement and maintains financial stability, Vietnam can absolutely achieve 8% growth next year - approaching the target of 10% for the 2026 period.

"Vietnam continues to demonstrate its ability to adapt quickly and sustainably to global fluctuations. The combination of production capacity, consumption power and stable policies has helped Vietnam maintain the leading growth rate in Asia," HSBC experts commented.

Mr. Minh

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/hsbc-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-viet-nam-len-gan-8-dan-dau-asean-102251028152849676.htm