Vietnam's GDP in 2025 is forecast by HSBC to increase by nearly 8%

HSBC Bank raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025, an upward revision from the previous forecast of 6.6%.

Workers working in a factory - Photo: VNA

Maintain strong trade

According to HSBC, Vietnam surprised the market with a growth rate of 8.2% in the third quarter of 2025, becoming the fastest growing economy in ASEAN.

“This is the second quarter that Vietnam's economic growth has exceeded 8% compared to the same period last year, easily surpassing market expectations,” HSBC said in a statement.

Vietnam achieved this achievement as its trade performance in recent times remained strong with double-digit growth, while other ASEAN countries’ exports to the US witnessed a slight decline after frontloading activities gradually decreased.

Another driver is that Vietnam's trade surplus in the third quarter of 2025 is double the level of the first half of this year, thanks to an increase in surpluses with trading partners other than the US, HSBC said.

In early October 2025, the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) said that Vietnam's goods export turnover in the third quarter of 2025 reached 128.57 billion USD, an increase of 18.4% over the same period last year and an increase of 9.6% over the second quarter.

In the first 9 months of 2025, the total export turnover of goods reached 348.74 billion USD, an increase of 16.0% over the same period.

At the same time, Vietnam's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew by 8.23%, the second highest in more than a decade, according to the General Statistics Office.

Following the GDP growth in the third quarter, HSBC raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.9% (up from the previous forecast of 6.6%) and 6.7% for 2026.

Power from electronics

Further analysis, HSBC said the above growth results demonstrate the stability of Vietnam's externally-oriented industries, reflected in the manufacturing and trade sectors, in the context of an unpredictable international trade environment.

Accordingly, industrial production in the third quarter increased by 10% compared to the same period last year, while exports and imports also grew by nearly 20%. The data also shows that the main driving force of Vietnam's trade in recent times has been electronic products.

HSBC said that this growth momentum has significantly boosted Vietnam's exports to the US, with third-quarter exports nearly reaching 30% growth compared to the same period last year.

Besides the positive export picture, HSBC also noted that Vietnam is concerned with domestic issues, as trade in goods still faces many difficulties.

Although the Government has promoted super infrastructure projects, the construction industry still has potential for further growth if public investment disbursement accelerates, as by the third quarter of 2025, the disbursement level only reached 50% of the annual plan.

NGHI VU

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/gdp-viet-nam-2025-duoc-hsbc-du-bao-tang-gan-8-20251028120511389.htm