The US economy receives much good news, trade deficit decreases sharply

Recently, Goldman Sachs Bank predicted that the possibility of a US economic recession in the next 12 months is 15%, down 5% from before.

A reduced trade deficit could be a factor in raising US economic growth estimates in the third quarter of 2024. (Source: Twitter)

The move came after the US Department of Labor released its September jobs report, which showed the number of new jobs created in the country hit a six-month high. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%.

"The September jobs report eased concerns that labor demand was weakening. The unemployment rate also did not rise significantly," said Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

The world’s largest economy has recently received many positive signals in terms of growth, inflation, employment and consumer confidence. The US gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.8% in the second quarter, higher than the first quarter (1.4%) and slightly higher than economists’ forecasts. Inflation also returned close to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target of 2%.

Mr. Hatzius also maintained his forecast that the Fed will cut the reference interest rate by another 25 basis points (0.25%) in the upcoming meetings, to bring the interest rate to 3.25-3.5% by June 2025.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed's preferred rate gauge, investors see a 95.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the November meeting, up from 71.5% before the jobs report.

* In another development, a report released by the US Department of Commerce on October 8 showed that the country's trade deficit in August 2024 decreased sharply thanks to exports increasing to a record high and imports decreasing.

Specifically, the US trade deficit in August decreased by 10.8% to 70.4 billion USD, the lowest level since March 2024, down from 78.9 billion USD in the previous month.

After adjusting for inflation, the goods trade deficit narrowed 8.9 percent to $88.6 billion.

The trade deficit narrowed sharply as exports rose 2.0% to a record high of $271.8 billion, with merchandise exports rising 2.5% to $179.4 billion, the highest since September 2022.

Merchandise exports were boosted by a $1.7 billion increase in capital goods exports, mainly telecommunications equipment, civil aircraft, computer accessories and other industrial machinery. However, semiconductor exports declined.

Exports of consumer goods increased by $1.0 billion, while crude oil exports decreased by $1.1 billion. Exports of services increased by $0.9 billion, reaching a record high of $92.3 billion.

Imports decreased by 0.9% to 342.2 billion USD, of which goods imports decreased by 1.4% to 274.3 billion USD.

The large trade deficit has led to lower-than-expected US economic growth estimates for the first two quarters of 2024. The sharp decline in the trade deficit in August 2024 is a factor that could support an increase in the economic growth estimate for the third quarter of 2024.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/kinh-te-my-don-nhieu-tin-vui-tham-hut-thuong-mai-giam-manh-289383.html