A push from legal policy
According to a newly released report by VIS Rating, project development activities are being strongly promoted thanks to timely legal policies and stable bank credit. Although operating cash flow remains negative, the medium and long-term outlook is assessed as positive.
The first quarter of 2025 saw a 37% year-on-year increase in the number of newly licensed projects, reflecting improvements in approval procedures. Two important policies issued in early April, Decree 76/2025/ND-CP (Decree 76) and Decree 75/2025/ND-CP (Decree 75), directly removed legal obstacles for dozens of delayed projects.
Decree 76 clearly stipulates how to calculate land use fees, helping 64 projects to be "cleared" legally. Meanwhile, Decree 75 allows the development of commercial housing on non-residential land if meeting sufficient conditions. These policies bring great advantages to large investors such as Vinhomes (VHM), Sovico, Eurowindow ...
In the two economic locomotives of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the supply of new housing in the first quarter increased by 51% compared to the same period last year, focusing on the high-end segment. Notably, the absorption rate reached 108% - exceeding the amount of sales, showing that market demand is recovering strongly.
Large-scale projects such as Vinhomes Global Gate (385 ha), Vinhomes Wonder City (133 ha), Waterpoint (355 ha) are leading the market. In addition, after the wave of provincial mergers, new administrative centers such as Bac Giang , Long An, Dong Nai are also attracting investment capital with the expectation of increasing real estate prices.
Stable credit, bonds waiting to "warm up"
Outstanding real estate business credit increased by 34% over the same period, thanks to improved legal progress. Outstanding home loans also maintained a stable growth rate of 12%. However, the corporate bond channel was not active in the first quarter. Some big names such as Vingroup, Ba Ria Vung Tau Housing Development Joint Stock Company (HDC), Nam Long Investment Joint Stock Company (NLG) have prepared plans to re-issue in the second half of the year.
The total value of newly issued bonds in the first quarter reached about VND18,594 billion – still low compared to previous years, but expected to improve as the legal framework and market confidence are strengthened.
A positive point is that the debt/EBITDA ratio of the group of 30 largest residential real estate enterprises has decreased sharply, from 4.2x to 3.0x thanks to a 45% increase in EBITDA while debt increased by only 16.2%. This shows that operating efficiency is improving significantly, especially in large enterprises such as Vinhomes JSC (VHM), Dat Xanh Group JSC (DXG), Khang Dien House Investment and Trading JSC (KDH).
However, according to VIS Rating’s analysis, the industry’s biggest weakness is still operating cash flow (CFO). Despite the increase in revenue, cash flow is still negative at around VND2,000 billion – a significant improvement from the negative VND12,000 billion in the same period last year. This is due to investors increasing spending on projects while sales cash flow has not been collected in time. However, the prepayment balance from customers is on an upward trend, promising to improve CFO in the next 12–18 months.
Overall, the residential real estate market had a positive first quarter of the year as legal bottlenecks were removed, credit flows stabilized and buyer confidence gradually recovered. However, cash flow pressure and the ability to mobilize capital from the bond market remain challenges in the short term, especially for small-scale businesses or those dependent on speculative models.
VIS Rating assesses that if current policies continue to be maintained and expanded, along with increased financial transparency of businesses, the residential real estate market can enter a more sustainable growth phase from the end of 2025 onwards.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/bat-dong-san/thi-truong-bat-dong-san-nha-o-quy-i-2025-khoi-sac-nho-chinh-sach-va-tin-dung/20250530054047118
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