Under the influence of El Nino and global warming, the North experienced a sudden cold spell, with ice and snow appearing in some places.
The North and Central regions are experiencing a severe cold spell. Since January 20, cold air has been pouring down, with some mountainous areas experiencing temperatures as low as 0 degrees Celsius and frost, while the midlands are experiencing temperatures below 7 degrees Celsius and the plains are experiencing temperatures below 10 degrees Celsius. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the severe cold spell will last until January 25.
According to Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, a hydrometeorology and climate change expert, the phenomenon of sudden cold weather is due to the influence of El Nino. This phenomenon occurs in El Nino years with a trend of hotter temperatures than normal. In 2024, the temperature trend is forecast to be 1.5 - 2 degrees Celsius hotter than the average of many years in the same period. In winter, El Nino years have sudden cold spells when the temperature drops, colder than the average of the same period in previous years.
Dr. Huy commented that these sudden cold spells are unusual, localized, and random, occurring when cold cores form from Siberia (Russia) to the South. Although the intensity of this cold spell is strong, the wind level is weak, so the cold air affects the North and Central regions, not spreading to the South. Therefore, Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern provinces will maintain warm and sunny weather until near Tet. According to him, the fact that Ho Chi Minh City has not received any cold spells in the past year is also due to the influence of the typical form of El Nino and global warming.
Children warming themselves during the cold spell of December 2023 in the suburbs of Hanoi . Photo: Gia Chinh
Professor Adam Scaife of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that El Nino years tend to start with a mild and wet winter (November to December). Then, later in the winter (January to March), the weather becomes cooler and drier. "El Nino will change the random probabilities for these outcomes," Professor Scaife told SMCP .
According to WMO, an El Nino cycle is often accompanied by record-breaking extreme values in both maximum and minimum temperatures, lasting throughout the year, even for many years.
Unusual and extreme weather is evident in the form of deep cold spells in winter and more extreme summer temperatures. Statistics from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the average global temperature is increasing. Vietnam shares this trend, but the rate of increase is 38% faster, according to data on temperature differences in the period 2006-2015 compared to the previous 20 years.
The GEMMES Vietnam project assessing the impact of climate change, conducted by more than 60 researchers from Vietnam and France, also pointed out that the weather is becoming more extreme. The study warned that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, the temperature in Vietnam could reach 4.18±1.57°C.
Scientists warn that extreme heat could severely impact agricultural output, putting many areas at risk of natural disasters that are increasing in both number and severity.
Ha An
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