Robusta coffee prices have stopped rising, domestic prices have reached new highs, how important is the US market?

The coffee industry in the world's largest economy is projected to experience modest growth next year. U.S. coffee consumption remains the world's highest, estimated at around 24 million bags annually, according to the National Coffee Association (NCA).

Coffee prices today, February 4, 2025

World coffee prices reflected a mixed picture in the first trading session of this week, with robusta plummeting while arabica continued its strong upward trend, up nearly 18% since the beginning of the year. Within the same short period, robusta prices had also risen by over 16%, but are now undergoing downward corrections.

Domestic coffee prices continued to surge after the long Lunar New Year holiday, officially surpassing the 130,500 VND/kg mark, currently trading in the range of 129,700 – 130,700 VND/kg. Thus, domestic coffee prices have increased by approximately 8.5% compared to the end of 2024, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 – 10,200 VND/kg.

The decline in London was expected. Analysts said the reason was that when the Vietnamese market reopened after the long Tet holiday, there was more supply to the market. In addition, Robusta coffee has been in the overbought zone since last week, and now is the time for strong speculation to push prices down.

Meanwhile, arabica prices have been rising steadily since the start of the year, supported by President Trump’s tariffs on South American countries and the volatile US dollar. Traders say 70-80% of Brazil’s current arabica stocks have been sold and new deals are relatively slow.

Estimates published so far from traders and analysts suggest coffee production may decline slightly compared to last year, but forecasts are still subject to revision. However, the actual figures from various forecasters are still causing market concern, fueling a strong upward trend.

According to Reuters, this year's coffee production in Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter, will not be as bad as initially predicted. Abundant rainfall following last year's worst drought in history has significantly improved crop conditions. Higher-than-expected yields in Brazil will help improve market supply amid severe shortages that have driven coffee prices to record highs recently.

However, some experts believe that Brazil’s 2025 crop is still likely to be smaller than 2024 and far from the record of nearly 70 million bags in 2020. However, the situation is not as bad as some other analysts had feared when coffee trees were hit by a severe drought late last year, affecting the ability to produce fruit. According to the director of a major exporting company in Brazil, “the rains came late but have not stopped since they started. It will be a crop with good quality coffee.”

The coffee market is also being influenced by optimistic speculative sentiment stemming from the prospects of the new crop in Brazil. Currently, forecasts indicate that total coffee production in the upcoming crop will be lower than initially predicted. As the new crop is still developing, supply shortages and price pressures have emerged in the Brazilian domestic market. However, some believe that coffee supply will remain stable to meet both domestic and export demand from the upcoming harvest, expected in the second half of 2025.

Regarding this week's market outlook, experts say both exchanges are in overbought territory. However, bullish sentiment remains strong as President Trump imposes tariffs on several countries. Experts predict a downward correction on both exchanges as supply from Vietnam returns and speculation on the exchanges leads to heavy selling.

Currently, some major coffee-growing regions in Vietnam are continuing to harvest late-ripening coffee, while most have finished this year's harvest. This year, coffee growers in the Central Highlands are enjoying record-high coffee prices, ensuring a prosperous Lunar New Year for them.

Coffee prices today, January 14, 2025: Coffee prices

According to World & Vietnam , at the close of trading on Monday (February 3rd), robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for the March 2025 delivery contract fell sharply by $184, trading at $5,534 per ton. The May 2025 delivery contract decreased by $174, trading at $5,520 per ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to rise sharply, with the March 2025 contract increasing by 3.05 cents to trade at 380.90 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 contract rose by 3 cents to trade at 374.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on February 3rd increased sharply by 1,700 - 1,900 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,090	+ 320
DAK LAK	130,500	+ 1,700
LAM DONG	129,700	+ 1,900
GIA LAI	130,500	+ 1,700
DAK NONG	130,700	+ 1,700

(Source: giacaphe.com)

The NCA report projected sales of $19.7 billion in 2024, a figure expected to increase slightly this year. According to the latest NCA data, 67% of American adults consume coffee daily (more than any other beverage, including bottled water). This percentage has increased by 37% since 2004 – marking its highest level in over 20 years. The percentage of Americans who drink coffee weekly is even higher, at 75%.

Explaining the growth, NCA President William Murray said that coffee accounts for about 1.3% of the US economy each year, is a cornerstone of Americans' daily lives and also provides significant health benefits. Commenting on the coffee industry, he said that it "has always been able to keep up with the diverse and ever-changing tastes of Americans."

William Murray also stated: “The growth of the specialty coffee industry is a major driver of daily coffee consumption among Americans. In fact, 57% of American adults now drink specialty coffee weekly, up 7.5% from the same period last year.”

As specialty coffee becomes more influential in the U.S. coffee market, consumer demand is also shaping the industry, making specialty coffee more accessible to more people. Jake Leonti, coffee director at U.S. roaster Gregory's Coffee, says that American consumers are increasingly accessing specialty coffee through single-serve items like instant coffee and canned coffee, according to Perfect Daily Grind.

Experts believe that Vietnamese coffee, especially the specialty robusta variety, has great potential for export to the US, as demand in that country continues to steadily increase.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-422025-gia-ca-phe-robusta-ngung-tang-trong-nuoc-lap-dinh-moi-thi-truong-my-quan-trong-the-nao-302983.html