Foreign exchange prices on July 9, 2025: USD continues to increase slightly

Exchange rates on the world market

The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), closed at 97.65 - up 0.33 points from July 8, 2025.

Foreign exchange rates on July 9, 2025: USD continues to rise slightly.

Illustrative image. (Image source: Internet)

Although analysts and investors are leaning towards a scenario where the US dollar continues to weaken in the long term, some experts believe the greenback could unexpectedly appreciate sharply in the second half of 2025. The main reason stems from escalating global trade tensions, particularly the US re-imposition of retaliatory tariffs under President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" policy, effective August 1st.

According to financial expert Damir Tokic, the current phase can be considered "phase 1" in a trade war scenario initiated by the US. The goal of this phase is to weaken partner economies through high tariffs, thereby putting pressure on them to make concessions in negotiations. This scenario also suggests that the US dollar may strengthen in the short term, despite long-term factors such as US debt pressure, expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, or protectionist economic policies.

Market developments in recent weeks have somewhat reflected this assessment. While the US stock market and bond yields have fallen due to recession fears, the US dollar has recovered significantly, indicating a return of safe-haven sentiment towards the greenback. In contrast to the reaction in April, when investors collectively "sold off" US assets, the USD is now benefiting from expectations that the global economy will suffer more severely than the US if the trade war escalates.

In the short term, a strong US dollar would help the US reduce import inflation, as goods priced in dollars become cheaper. Strategically, this also aligns with the goal of curbing domestic inflationary pressures. However, in the long term, analysts still believe the USD will revert to a downward trend as the trade war enters "Phase 2," when major trading partners are forced to appreciate their currencies against the USD to reach new agreements with the US.

Nevertheless, market sentiment remains against the USD. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of short positions in the USD is at its highest level in two years. Many investors still expect the greenback to weaken amid rising economic risks, potential pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, and even the emergence of a "shadow Fed chairman" if political pressure intervenes in monetary policy.

Experts say that, in this context, investors should closely monitor the fluctuations of the USD, especially against the Euro and the Australian dollar – two currencies considered "barometers" of global growth and most vulnerable to US tariff policies. While it is difficult to accurately predict the extent of the trade war's escalation, the clearest signal at this time is that the USD is likely to continue strengthening, at least until the macroeconomic storm subsides.

Domestic USD exchange rate

On the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on July 9th, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the US Dollar at 25,121 VND.

The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange floor increased, currently standing at 23,915 VND - 26,327 VND for buying and selling respectively.

Specifically, at Vietcombank, the USD exchange rate is 25,915 - 26,305 VND/USD, a decrease of 25 VND in both directions compared to yesterday's trading session.

NCB Bank is buying USD cash at the lowest rate: 1 USD = 25,795 VND

VRB Bank is buying USD transfers at the lowest rate: 1 USD = 25,930 VND

HSBC Bank is buying USD cash at the highest rate: 1 USD = 26,030 VND

HSBC Bank is buying USD transfers at the highest rate: 1 USD = 26,030 VND

HSBC Bank is selling USD cash at the lowest rate: 1 USD = 26,266 VND

HSBC Bank is selling USD transfers at the lowest rate: 1 USD = 26,266 VND.

Nam A Bank is selling USD cash at the highest rate: 1 USD = 26,376 VND

ABBank and SCB are selling USD transfers at the highest rate: 1 USD = 26,360 VND.

The EUR exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange desk decreased, currently standing at 28,017 VND - 30,967 VND (buying rate - selling rate).

The Japanese yen exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange desk decreased, currently standing at 163 dong - 181 dong for buying and selling.

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/gia-ngoai-te-ngay-9-7-2025-usd-tiep-tuc-tang-nhe/20250709083520118