NASA's new model paves the way for the search for extraterrestrial life.

(Dan Tri Newspaper) - Humanity is getting closer to the answer to a question that has existed for thousands of years: Are we truly alone in the universe?

For decades, NASA and the global scientific community's quest for extraterrestrial life has followed one core principle: "Find where there is water."

The concept of the "habitable zone"—the ideal distance from a star for liquid water to exist—has become the gold standard for selecting observational targets.

An illustration of Kepler-186f, an exoplanet located in the habitable zone around its star (Image: NASA).

However, current evidence suggests that water is not the only factor determining the viability of life. The discovery of thousands of exoplanets with diverse climates, geology, and radiation patterns has painted a far more complex picture of extraterrestrial life.

Faced with this challenge, a team of NASA scientists, led by Dr. Daniel Apai from the University of Arizona, proposed a groundbreaking model: "Quantitative Habitability."

This is a pioneering model for assessing the probability of life existing on distant planets by combining astronomical environmental data with experimental biological adaptability.

Kepler 186 is located in the habitable zone, similar to Earth, even though it orbits a dwarf star named M1 (Image: NASA).

Instead of simply asking whether a planet is habitable, the new model goes deeper: "Could this planet support a specific form of life, whether it's anaerobic bacteria or an extremophile?"

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Unlike traditional binary methods, this model constructs two layers of analysis. The first layer is environmental modeling based on data collected from telescopes, such as temperature, atmospheric composition, and radiation levels.

The second layer simulates the survival capabilities of real-life extreme organisms on Earth, from bacteria living in acid springs and permafrost to organisms in hydrothermal vents deep at the bottom of the ocean.

This combination provides a more flexible and realistic quantitative probability of life forms, allowing observation systems to focus on the most promising targets, rather than spreading their time across hundreds of "Earth-like" planets of unknown biological value.

In a vast and mysterious universe, this could be the key tool to bringing humanity closer to the age-old question: Are we truly alone in the universe?

Uncertainty can also be valuable information.

Illustration of an observatory photographing potentially habitable exoplanets (Image: Scientific Visualization Studio).

Another breakthrough of the new model is its ability to handle uncertain data – a common problem in astronomy.

When a planet is hundreds of light-years away from us, scientists can only collect faint light signals and analyze the spectrum to infer information about its atmosphere or surface temperature. In many cases, these parameters are only determined with a probability of 60-90%, not an absolute conclusion.

Previously, this level of uncertainty often forced researchers to discard data or make subjective judgments. However, by using advanced probabilistic computing tools, Dr. Apai's team can now incorporate this uncertainty into their models and still produce useful assessments.

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This represents a significant methodological shift, transforming imperfect data into valuable scientific information.

In the next phase, the research team plans to continue expanding the database of extreme organisms, while also simulating theoretical life forms that do not rely on carbon or water, such as organisms that utilize ammonia or live in methane atmospheres.

These are necessary steps to broaden our ability to assess extraterrestrial biosphere more comprehensively, especially as missions to explore moons like Europa or Enceladus become increasingly realistic.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/khoa-hoc/mo-hinh-moi-cua-nasa-mo-duong-tim-su-song-ngoai-trai-dat-20250616073348287.htm