US allows Ukraine to attack deep into Russian territory: Slow flashing 'green light'?

Ukraine's use of US-made long-range missiles to attack military targets in Russia could escalate the conflict into a more intense confrontation.

The ATACMS missile lifts off the launch pad. (Illustrative image: Pictorial Press Ltd/Alamy)

On November 18, two unnamed senior US officials said President Joe Biden had given the "green light" for Ukraine to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike military targets in Russia.

A breakthrough opportunity…

ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile manufactured by Lockheed Martin (USA) with a range of 180-300 km. In the past, Ukraine has used this weapon to attack Russian air defense bases and positions on the Crimean Peninsula and other areas in Ukraine. Now, the Ukrainian military can use ATACMS to threaten more than 200 important Russian military targets near its border, including airfields, strategic weapons depots, training centers, and vital supply routes. The Kursk region, where Russia has deployed 50,000 regular troops and reserves, could be a prime target.

On November 19th, Ukraine fired six ATCMS missiles at several Russian military targets, including an arms depot in the town of Karachev, Bryansk region. Moscow stated that its air defense system intercepted five missiles and destroyed one.

This move by the US has three notable points.

First, as the conflict enters its 1,000th day, the US allowing Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to strike military targets on Russian territory shows that President Joe Biden wants to affirm that Washington continues to stand with Kyiv, even as the White House is set to change hands next January.

Secondly, the US move is seen as a response after US and South Korean intelligence reported the presence of a large number of North Korean soldiers in battlefields in Ukraine. Specifically, in early November, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken emphasized that there were 8,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian ambassador to South Korea, Dmytro Ponomarenko, claimed that the number had now risen to 15,000. However, according to Yonhap, Russia and North Korea continue to deny accusations that Pyongyang has sent troops to Russia to fight, deeming these allegations unfounded. Moscow, on the other hand, stated that even if North Korea were to send soldiers to Russia, it would not violate international law.

Third, this move comes as the US election has concluded with Donald Trump's victory. The politician has repeatedly stated his willingness to end the conflict in Ukraine through negotiations with Russia, rather than continuing to provide weapons to Kyiv as is currently the case. Therefore, after previous refusals, Biden's "green light" for Zelensky's administration to use these long-range missiles could help Ukraine intensify its response to Russia, forcing Russia to reduce military activity near the border. Kyiv could then use this as a springboard for further military operations or gain a better position in negotiations with Moscow once Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The Wall Street Journal (US) suggests that the deployment of ATACMS by the Ukrainian military could force Russia to adjust its defensive and offensive tactics. Currently, Moscow maintains a flexible strategy of deploying troops and supplies, with most equipment positioned only 30-50km from the front lines. With this change, Russia could move its troop deployment areas back, creating more space for Ukraine.

Has the situation changed?

Responding to the US President's recent decision, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that providing ATACMS to Ukraine "is essentially a new spiral... escalating tensions to a new qualitative level." On November 19, in a retaliatory move, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine, adding a clause for nuclear deterrence even against conventional attacks.

Furthermore, many have expressed skepticism about Biden's decision. First, they argue that the US President's "green light" came too late. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asserted that during months of lobbying, Russia had already gained the necessary advantage. Similarly, Matthew Savill, an expert at the London-based Research Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), assessed that the US's hesitation had given Russia a tactical advantage.

Furthermore, with limited supplies, ATACMS will be difficult to use widely in Ukraine. Previously, US officials questioned whether the current ATACMS stock could make a difference, even if used effectively. Jennifer Kavanah, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities Agency (DPA), assessed: “To truly impact Russia, Ukraine would need a large quantity of ATACMS, which it does not have and will not receive due to the limited US supply.”

In particular, even when fully utilized, ATACMS cannot change the course of the conflict. Peter Dickinson, an expert at the Atlantic Council (USA), assesses that Russia has already moved many important military facilities out of ATACMS' range. Pentagon spokesman Major Charlie Dietz emphasized that ATACMS is not the answer to the Russian glide bomb problem that Ukraine is facing.

Nevertheless, Washington's new decision, Moscow's reaction, and Kyiv's actions could push the conflict into a new phase. Both Russia and Ukraine are approaching winter, a time unfavorable for large-scale military operations. At the same time, the possibility of resuming negotiations in the spring is gradually emerging under the new US president. Therefore, both Kyiv and Moscow are trying to gain the greatest possible advantage in November and early December, with more intense and protracted fighting.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/my-cho-phep-ukraine-tan-cong-sau-vao-lanh-tho-nga-den-xanh-nhay-cham-294594.html