US-China relations continue to be the most notable focus at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June 2-4 at the hotel of the same name in Singapore.
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| Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. (Source: Itar-Tass/UPI Photo/Imago) |
The reason for the word “continue” is because, according to policy analyst James Crabtree, Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore, the focus of the Shangri-La Dialogue for nearly two decades has always been the relationship between the US and China. So what is special about this Shangri-La Dialogue?
New factor…
First of all, there are the new faces. This year, attention will certainly be on Li Shangfu, China’s defense minister, who replaced Wei Fenghe in March. Since then, China’s top defense official has not made many appearances at international events or regional forums. The Shangri-La Dialogue will be a good opportunity for him to make his mark.
Notably, since taking office, Mr. Li Shangfu has not had any direct meetings with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. On May 29, the Pentagon even said that China had rejected the US's proposal to hold a meeting between the two countries' top defense officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Regarding the decision, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said that the US needs to "seriously respect China's sovereignty, interests and concerns", show sincerity, and create a favorable atmosphere before the dialogue.
In that context, Mr. Li Shangfu's speech on "China's New Security Initiative", meetings with representatives of the host country as well as contacts with other delegations will receive special attention.
For his part, Mr. Lloyd Austin is expected to meet a number of leaders on the sidelines of the event, aiming to promote defense cooperation in the region, a shared vision of a free and open Indo- Pacific , with ASEAN at the center.
Another highlight was the appearance of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who was the keynote speaker at the opening ceremony on June 2. In his speech, he outlined the nation’s vision for the Indo- Pacific region. Last year, as the keynote speaker at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a notable speech on the subject.
Old painting
Despite the change in Chinese representation, the content of this year's Shangri-La Dialogue seems to still be between China and the United States.
In fact, Beijing's refusal took place in the context of complicated developments in US-China relations since the most recent Dialogue with many hot events, including the visit of the then US House Speaker to Taiwan (China).
On the one hand, both sides have shown the necessary efforts to cool down. In early May, US National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan met with Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, in Vienna. US President Joe Biden believes that relations with China will soon “thaw”. Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder stressed that China’s decision does not affect efforts to find a line of communication with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
On the other hand, incidents on the ground between the two militaries are occurring with increasing frequency, typically the US shooting down a Chinese balloon in February. Recently, in a May 30 announcement, the Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) said that a Chinese J-16 aircraft had flown across the face of a US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft. In December 2022, a similar incident occurred, forcing the US aircraft to change course to avoid a collision.
Could a meeting between the US and Chinese defense chiefs change this? Probably not. During the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue, Austin met privately with his then-Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe. However, the brief encounter did little to ease bilateral relations, with Wei criticizing Washington for blocking Beijing’s development at the forum.
In fact, after the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Indonesia in November 2022, high-level bilateral contacts have been maintained but at a low frequency.
Not to mention that when he was the Director of the General Department of Equipment, Mr. Ly was sanctioned by the US government in connection with the Su-35 fighter jet and S-400 air defense missile system deal between Russia and China.
In that context, the fact that the US and Chinese defense leaders have not met at Shangri-La is not a surprising or negative thing. If anything, China’s decision and the US response show caution on both sides. However, in a relationship that politicians and scholars describe as “the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century,” such caution is certainly necessary.
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