PMI increases sharply, Vietnamese businesses are optimistic about orders and exports

(Dan Tri) - Vietnam's manufacturing PMI index in October increased to 54.5 points, the highest level in 16 months. Output, orders and business confidence recovered together, signaling a new phase of economic acceleration.

S&P Global has just released the Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October, showing that business confidence reached a 16-month high. Along with that, output, new orders and inventories of purchased goods all increased strongly again.

Business confidence recovers, exports continue to grow

Specifically, the PMI in October reached 54.5 points, a significant increase compared to 50.4 points in September. A level above 50 points shows that manufacturing activities are expanding, reflecting a clear improvement in the health of the industry.

New orders rose for the second month running, at a much faster pace than in the previous month. Export orders, in particular, were the main driver of the increase. To meet the new demand, businesses ramped up production, recording the largest increase in output since July 2024.

Business sentiment also improved strongly: manufacturers believed orders would continue to rise in the coming period and planned to expand production capacity. Business confidence therefore reached its highest level since mid-2023.

Commodity exports - the mainstay of the economy - continue to be a bright spot. According to the General Department of Customs, as of October 15, export turnover reached more than 368 billion USD, up 16% over the same period last year. Export value increased by 52 billion USD compared to 2024 - an impressive result in the context of global trade being under pressure from tariffs and import barriers in major markets.

Statistics on the third quarter business results of listed companies also show a similar bright picture. Statistics so far show that more than 30 companies have reported profits of thousands of billions of VND, including many units in the retail group such as Mobile World (stock code: MWG), Masan Consumer (stock code: MCH), Sabeco (stock code: SAB)….

Despite the challenging economic situation, business confidence is clearly improving. According to the survey on business trends in the processing and manufacturing industry conducted by the General Statistics Office, 33.6% of enterprises assessed the production and business situation in the third quarter as better than the second quarter; 44.2% said it was stable and only 22.2% said it was more difficult.

Forecasting for the fourth quarter, 40.8% of businesses believe that operations will improve, 41.7% forecast stability and 17.5% believe the situation will remain difficult.

Positive signals also come from the export sector. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said seafood exports are accelerating strongly, expected to reach 10-11 billion USD in 2025.

Expert: Vietnam strengthens production capacity and trade resilience

Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam (Photo: BTC).

Sharing at the recent Vietnam Investment Forum (VIF 2026), Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, commented: “In the context of the world economy facing many difficulties, many markets are still struggling to recover, Vietnam is still able to achieve a total import-export turnover of about 800-850 billion USD. This is a new record for the economy. This shows that the confidence of foreign importers in Vietnam's goods and production capacity is still very strong.”

Another important driver is domestic consumption, which is expected to continue to perform well. Despite the economic difficulties, total retail sales and revenue from goods and services still maintained a growth rate of 9-11%. Consumption by Vietnam's 100 million people is an extremely important driver for future growth.

Mr. Binh also said that the ability to recover production and meet the needs of the global economy has also been clearly strengthened. In addition, global trade tensions, at least between Vietnam and some major economies, are also easing.

In particular, in the past week, we have witnessed strong progress in normalizing tax relations between Vietnam and the US. This is a factor that will directly contribute to Vietnam's trade growth next year.

Mr. Sacha Dray - Economist, World Bank Vietnam (Photo: BTC).

Regarding the Vietnam-US relationship, Mr. Sacha Dray - Economic Expert, World Bank Vietnam - added: "At the beginning of the year, the story was completely different from now. At that time, with the initial reciprocal tax policy of the US Government, exports were very concerned. But now, many open policies have been introduced, and exports are recovering in a very sustainable way."

The World Bank Vietnam expert gave an example of Vietnam's recent 23% increase in export turnover to the US, reaching 113 billion USD. This is a record number in Vietnam's export history. In addition, Mr. Sacha Dray also affirmed that Vietnam is making very positive progress and strong changes in the economic situation. Registered business capital has increased by 8.2% compared to last year and this rate is the fastest growing in the region....

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/pmi-tang-manh-doanh-nghiep-viet-lac-quan-ve-don-hang-va-xuat-khau-20251104102654878.htm