(NLĐO) - Experts predict that the stock market in 2025 will experience strong, even "convulsive" waves, which could cause investors to feel disoriented.
Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan - General Director of Dong A Securities Joint Stock Company (DAS)
The flow of money will be unlocked.
In 2024, due to the impact of exchange rates, many foreign investors reduced their investment holdings. However, now that the exchange rate has decreased, the stock market will be more positive. Previously, foreign investors expected the US to maintain high interest rates, so they gradually sold off their holdings. But now that the exchange rate has decreased, the Vietnamese currency is no longer afraid of depreciation, so it is highly likely that foreign investors will return. In addition, foreign investors are concerned about inflation if Vietnam increases its money supply, but the money they sold is temporarily staying within the country. This is a positive opportunity for the Vietnamese market.
Conversely, business growth in 2024 was relatively good, especially in the banking sector, except for small businesses with low growth. A number of industrial real estate companies achieved positive profits. For real estate companies, difficulties related to bond issuance have gradually eased. Many companies have now raised new bonds, creating favorable conditions for the stock market in 2025.
However, there is one concerning scenario: the upgrade of the stock market, despite plans, is progressing slowly, which is dampening investor expectations. Nevertheless, the possibility of Vietnam being included in the upgrade list in March could be attractive to investors.
From a macroeconomic perspective , the most important thing is that while GDP growth in 2024 may be high, the growth rate of businesses must certainly be even higher. And with the current positive P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) (around 12 times) and the growth rate of listed companies reaching 18%, the market remains attractive.
When the market is upgraded, things will be positive in the near future. In the short term, capital is not yet ready, but I believe that with solutions to strongly promote public investment and infrastructure investment in many important routes, the stock market will attract capital back in the next 3 years.
Regarding cash flow, although it hasn't grown yet, the fact that margin trading has reached nearly $10 billion while market liquidity is only around 15,000 billion VND is paradoxical. However, the increase in margin trading without a corresponding increase in market liquidity suggests that capital is concentrated elsewhere. This is also an important point for investors to observe in 2025.
I believe that when businesses restructure their cash flow and return to affordable financing from banks, investor confidence, both domestic and international, will return.
Furthermore, the net outflow of $4 billion from foreign investors in 2024 requires a counterbalancing force from other investors. Domestic investors have been "stuck" with this capital, unable to release it, resulting in low liquidity. I believe and expect that this capital flow will be unlocked and return after the Lunar New Year in 2025.
Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu - Head of the Finance and Banking Department, University of Banking Ho Chi Minh City
Expectations from new cash flow
Regarding the stock market in 2025, investors are likely to have high expectations for an upgrade in market status. This would attract foreign capital from ETFs. Many studies show that frontier markets, after being upgraded to emerging markets, experience significant growth, attracting many times more foreign investment.
Furthermore, another important foundation of the Vietnamese stock market is the active participation of new investors. In 2024 alone, over 2 million new accounts were added. This includes the younger generation, investors with a fresh perspective, who are tech-savvy, have a risk tolerance, and are knowledgeable about the stock market. They are interested in stocks, not just gold or real estate like the 60s and 70s generations…
While this generation of investors may not have a large initial investment, their potential for gradual growth in the future is very good. They will create a sustainable generation of stock market investors.
The stock market in 2025 is predicted to experience volatility and follow an upward trend.
In addition, I've observed that investor preferences have changed significantly recently, with institutions and open-ended funds attracting investors with more professional and stable foundations.
Regarding interest rates, they will certainly remain stable in 2025, as the government has promoted economic growth, thus maintaining a low interest rate policy. However, to attract foreign capital, I believe new investors need a fresh story. Especially in mergers and acquisitions, there needs to be more impetus related to cash flow to draw investor interest in the stock market.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Research and Development, Yuanta Securities Vietnam
Stock markets will experience strong fluctuations in 2025.
From a macroeconomic perspective, 2025 will be a year of strong growth, arguably the best since 2016. However, whether the Vietnamese stock market will grow in line with the macroeconomic outlook is another story.
The rise or fall of Vietnamese stocks is influenced by two factors: macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment. If the macroeconomic situation is stable, the market will be favorable, but investor sentiment can significantly impact investors. Uncertainty from the global market is a major variable, especially regarding the policy decisions of US President Donald Trump.
Therefore, President Trump's decisions regarding the US-China trade and economic tensions, from tax policies to immigration, will significantly impact the future of the US economy and affect the sentiment of domestic and foreign investors.
Remember, in 2017, the stock market, while still trending upwards, experienced significant volatility. Therefore, this trend may return in 2025, but the scenario remains unclear. It's highly likely that Trump will implement policies that escalate trade tensions between the US and China and other countries, though not yet to a critical point. For example, increasing tariffs on US products to 19-15%...
Similarly, while there have been calls for the Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates in the stock market, these calls are not yet at their peak, as they would be beneficial to the stock market.
It's really hard to predict what the market will be like in the near future, but in my opinion, it's highly likely that President Trump will create things that benefit the US economy and the stock market will move upwards.
In a frontier stock market like Vietnam, there are still many speculators, and psychological factors are strongly influenced. Therefore, even a seemingly "mild" statement on social media can cause the Vietnamese stock market to fluctuate violently. It would be very unwise for any investor to be afraid of "getting carried away" by the market fluctuations.
However, upgrading the market status is a crucial catalyst; if done at the right time, the stock market in 2025 could boom, with a clearer trend rather than the sluggishness of 2025. In particular, there will be a return of foreign investors as the wave of IPOs (initial public offerings) of large companies attracts foreign capital back into the market.
I predict that market liquidity this year will be around 25,000 billion VND per trading session.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-2025-co-the-lam-nha-dau-tu-say-song-196250129184935251.htm
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