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USD exchange rate in Vietnam and interest rate forecast in the world context

(NLDO) - High USD interest rates in the international market will put pressure on exchange rates in Vietnam.

Người Lao ĐộngNgười Lao Động08/08/2025

On August 8, the central exchange rate was listed by the State Bank at 25,228 VND/USD, down 21 VND per USD compared to yesterday.

USD price at commercial banks is traded around 26,030 VND/USD for buying and 26,390 VND/USD for selling.

However, since the beginning of the year, the exchange rate has increased by more than 3% and has remained high in recent days.

Giá USD tại Việt Nam liên tục tăng, Ngân hàng Nhà nước nói gì?- Ảnh 2.

The exchange rate has increased by more than 3% since the beginning of the year.

Mr. Dinh Duc Quang, Director of Currency Trading, UOB Vietnam Bank, analyzed that in the latest meeting, the US Federal Reserve (FED) decided not to change the USD policy interest rate - continuing to anchor at a high level (4.5%). The FED Chairman has not yet given a definite forecast for the direction of interest rate management in the September 2025 meeting.

With this new development, the USD has increased strongly compared to other currencies and the DXY index is returning to its highest level in the past 3 months. The possibility that USD interest rates may continue to be anchored at a high level, averaging over 4%, although UOB Vietnam believes that the FED will still cut interest rates 2-3 times by the end of the year.

This development continues to put pressure on expectations that VND interest rates will be cut to support production and business, promoting high growth towards GDP growth of over 8% this year.

Consider the exchange rate and interest rate problem

At the regular Government meeting held on August 7, State Bank Governor Nguyen Thi Hong acknowledged that the exchange rate is under considerable pressure, due to the dual impact of economic factors and market psychology.

To date, the USD/VND exchange rate has increased by 2.9% compared to the end of last year. In this context, the Governor said that if the pressure continues to increase sharply, the State Bank will consider not further reducing interest rates to avoid affecting exchange rate stability, thereby causing macroeconomic instability.

"We will closely monitor developments and set appropriate priorities for each stage, aiming towards the common goal of macroeconomic stability and supporting sustainable economic growth," Governor Nguyen Thi Hong affirmed.

UOB Vietnam Bank forecasts that the USD/VND exchange rate will continue to trade at a high level of around VND26,400 - 26,500 in the third quarter and will decrease slightly to around VND26,000 by the end of this year. At VND26,000, the exchange rate could depreciate by about 2-3% for the whole year.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/gia-usd-tai-viet-nam-lien-tuc-tang-ngan-hang-nha-nuoc-noi-gi-196250805114546322.htm


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