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Chip manufacturing – global technology competition
Chips play a very important role in modern industries. This was especially evident during the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Due to a shortage of electronic components, global car production fell by a quarter in 2021, as chipmakers previously focused on home appliances, computers, phones and electric vehicles.
For Russian industries, the chip shortage was especially acute in 2022, when foreign chipmakers refused to supply one after another. Russian car production was halted for several months due to a lack of ABS (Anti-Lock Brake System) control units and airbags. The situation improved somewhat with the launch of domestic ABS production in the city of Kaluga Itelma under a Chinese license. But the most difficult part of the product, the electronic brain of the control unit, is prefabricated in China. Creating an ABS of its own would require more than a year and more than a billion dollars in investment. Russia is now forced to pay such a price for its decades of neglect. The automotive industry is just one example of countless production chains where Russia is forced to use imported chips and components.
The autonomy of the microelectronics industry depends on many factors, both internal and external. Restrictions on the import of high-tech semiconductors are aimed not only at Russia but also at China. The Dutch company ASM Lithography, which produces the most advanced lithography (chip manufacturing) machines in the world, has been banned by the United States from selling products to China. Since August 2022, the US has had the CHIPS Act, (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors Act) or the Semiconductor Manufacturing Stimulus Act. The main goal is to transfer part of the microchip production to the United States. Currently, the US produces 70-75% of semiconductors in Taiwan (China). The CHIPS Act plans to invest $52 billion in developing production in the US and more than $24 billion in related tax incentives.
In addition, the US is considering a ban on supplying Russia and China with advanced graphics processors from US-based Nvidia, which are used to build supercomputers. According to the US, this will slow down the development of artificial intelligence technology of these two rivals. In March 2023, the CHIPS Act will tighten its grip on China. A ban was issued on investments in the production of chips with interconnect structures smaller than 28 nanometers in China. In response and to protect national security and interests, Beijing has imposed export controls on the metals gallium and germanium, which are widely used in the production of microelectronics, starting from August 1 this year. China currently produces about 80% of the world's gallium and 60% of germanium.
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Lessons from countries trying to become chip self-sufficient
In 2015, the Chinese government announced the concept of "Made in China 2025", according to which the country would meet more than 70% of its domestic semiconductor needs by 2025. But by 2022, that figure was only 16%. The project has not been successful, although China is in a much more favorable "position" than Russia now.
For India, a country with a fairly high level of information technology, it is also very difficult to plan to build its own chip technology. To organize domestic microchip production, India invited Foxconn of Taiwan (China). At first, they aimed for a chip manufacturing standard of 28 nm, later reduced to 40 nm, but as a result, Taiwan (China) withdrew from the project. There may be many reasons, but the main reason is that India cannot find a highly qualified technical team to produce.
Russia has no intention of staying out of the global chip war, albeit rather late. Currently, Russia can produce chips with a connection structure of at least 65 nm and above, while Taiwan's TSMC (China) has mastered 5 nm.
One question that has been raised in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict is how Russia can launch missiles and other weapons so endlessly. The answer is that chips for missiles and other military equipment can be made with a 100-150nm interconnect structure, which Russia can take the initiative in. Russia produces 65nm chips exclusively on imported equipment that was previously licensed, used Nikon and ASM Lithography.
As for civilian chip projects, Russia has made some initial steps. A 28-nanometer chip fabrication plant is being built in Zelenograd, and Mikron has received a 7 billion ruble ($100 million) loan to expand production. In addition, the Zelenograd Nanotechnology Center is developing a 5.7 billion ($70 million) tender for a 130-nm lithography machine. Nearly a billion rubles have been allocated to the center for the creation of a 350-nm machine. The technology is obviously old, but it is entirely domestically produced. Five billion rubles are allocated to the construction of a network of test sites for the production of developed chips, such as at the Moscow Institute of Electronic Technology, in St. Petersburg and other Russian cities.
But money is not everything. The difficulties of the chip autonomy program are not limited to the complexity of the product, but also to other problems. First of all, there is a shortage of engineers. Hundreds of billions of rubles can be allocated for priority programs, but highly qualified specialists cannot be found. Creating world-class semiconductors requires the efforts of hundreds, if not thousands of engineers and scientists. And not from one institute or design company, but from an entire corporation. According to Kommersant, in July 2023, 42% of Russia's industrial facilities faced a shortage of workers. The Kronstadt company, a famous drone factory, could not find workers in nine specialties at once, the key ones of which were operational and test engineers, process engineers, aircraft assemblers and aircraft electrical installers. This problem is likely to get worse now. So the question is where to get workers for the microchip factories of the future.
Next is the problem of transferring the results from the laboratory to mass production. For example, the Institute of Microstructural Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been quite successful in researching EUV lithography for a long time. These are modern machines that operate on X-rays and are capable of manufacturing chips with a structure of 10 nm or less. In 2019, the chief expert of the Institute, Honorary Academician Nikolai Salashchenko, said that Russia is working on a lithography model that is ten times cheaper than existing foreign equipment and hopes that this machine can be completed in five to six years. It will be a highly anticipated machine for creating microscopic chips and can be produced on a small scale.
It was ambitious, but in reality, after nearly five years, there was still no news of a breakthrough in lithography technology. Even if scientists had created a prototype, they would still have to build a manufacturing process and then build a factory. In theory, Russia could have developed a perfect prototype lithography machine, better than anything Nikon and ASM Lithography had ever produced, but failed to mass-produce it. This was not uncommon in Soviet times and is still the case today.
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