Coffee leads the increase, MXV-Index reaches 8-month peak

After two positive sessions, the MXV-Index closed yesterday (November 3) up nearly 1% to 2,351 points - the highest level since late February. The group of industrial materials, especially the two coffee products, played a leading role and created an important driving force for the entire market.

Supply concerns support coffee prices

Closing yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw material market witnessed overwhelming buying power with 7 out of 9 commodities increasing in price simultaneously. Notably, the price of Arabica coffee increased by more than 3.7% to 8,965 USD/ton while the price of Robusta coffee also increased by more than 3.3% to 4,693 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), extreme weather in the world's two leading coffee producing countries, Vietnam and Brazil, is raising concerns about crop damage, pushing coffee prices up sharply in the first trading session of the week.

In Vietnam, the Central Highlands region - the country's main coffee growing region - is expected to be directly affected by Typhoon Kalmaegi, which could reach level 12-13 when it makes landfall. The storm moves quickly, accompanied by thunderstorms and widespread heavy rain from the night of November 6 to November 9, affecting provinces from Quang Tri to Dak Lak, with the eye of the storm likely to make landfall in the area from Da Nang to Khanh Hoa. Previously, prolonged heavy rains also caused harvest progress in these provinces to stagnate and raised concerns that the 2025-2026 crop output would decrease sharply.

In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, dry weather continues to hamper yields. Rainfall in the state of Minas Gerais, a key coffee-producing hub, is currently only around 75% of average, threatening to reduce output while global supplies have yet to recover from a period of shortage. Although forecasts suggest that the weather in Brazil may improve in the coming weeks, investors are cautious about the risk of the market falling into a period of strong fluctuations due to increasing supply and demand tensions.

Meanwhile, global coffee supplies are tightening, with some international sources saying that US roasters have almost run out of stockpiles. This makes the removal of the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee more urgent. Arabica coffee inventories monitored by ICE fell to their lowest level in nearly two years, to 431,481 bags as of early this week.

Robusta inventories also fell sharply, down to just 6,053 lots - the lowest level in more than three months.
In the domestic market, the price of green coffee beans in Dak Lak yesterday was generally stable, fluctuating around 116,000 - 116,500 VND/kg, in the context that agents were still slow to announce new buying prices. Trading activities were generally quiet as both buyers and sellers cautiously observed weather developments.

In many areas such as Cu M'gar, Krong Nang and Ea H'leo, people are taking advantage of the coffee harvest period before the storms return. However, the heavy rainfall in recent days has disrupted the harvesting process, and at the same time, poses a risk of reducing bean quality and affecting the 2025-2026 crop yield if the bad weather continues.

World oil prices increased for the fourth consecutive session

Not outside the general market trend, the energy group yesterday also recorded green covering all 5 commodities in the group. Notably, the market continued to witness the slight recovery of world oil prices extending to the 4th consecutive session despite the decision to continue increasing production in December from OPEC+.

Closing, the prices of both crude oil products recorded a slight increase of 0.11%, with WTI oil price stopping at 61.05 USD/barrel, while Brent oil price was traded at 64.84 USD/barrel.

Last weekend, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) officially confirmed that they would continue to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. This is the third consecutive increase after October and November and is part of the roadmap to completely remove the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut that has been applied since April 2023.

However, analysts said the increase was still modest and unlikely to put significant pressure on world oil prices. According to analysts at consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates: “Any negative price impact from OPEC pushing for a 137,000 barrel/day production increase this quarter will be offset by the organization’s proposal to suspend production increases after the end of this year.”
Specifically, in the same press release, OPEC+ said that it would keep production unchanged for at least the first three months of 2026. According to OPEC+, this decision was made due to the seasonal nature of the first quarter, which is often considered the weakest time in terms of supply and demand balance. This has helped to ease market sentiment about the risk of global oversupply in the short term.

In other related developments, natural gas prices in the US also extended their gains to the fourth consecutive session. At the close, natural gas prices reached 4.27 USD/MMBtu, up 3.44%. Previously, in the last trading session of October, natural gas prices surpassed the 4 USD/MMBtu mark for the first time since early March, when expectations for heating demand increased sharply in the context of approaching winter in countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/caphe-dan-dat-da-tang-mxvindex-ve-dinh-8-thang-20251104083832854.htm