Stock market week 25 - 29/8: VN-Index has passed the "speculative peak" stage

VN-Index's unpredictable performance

VN-Index extended its streak of 4 consecutive increasing sessions, however, at the end of the week, selling pressure increased, causing the index to "plummet" sharply by more than 42 points, causing the VN-Index to end the week up only 0.95% (equivalent to 15.47 points), to 1,645.47 points.

The market maintained a positive week thanks to the Banking group when the opening was dominated by red with only 3/21 industry groups increasing points: Banking (+4.87%), Real Estate (+1.70%) and Oil and Gas (+0.15%). On the contrary, Steel (-7.18%), Fertilizer (-6.39%) and Construction (-5.56%) were the 3 industry groups under the strongest correction pressure this week.

Chứng khoán tuần 25 - 29/8: VN-Index đã qua giai đoạn — The whole market "turned around" and decreased sharply (Screenshot: SSI iBoard)

The average matched liquidity in the past 20 weeks was a record high, with an increase of 75.1%. Specifically, accumulated to the end of the trading session, the average weekly liquidity on the HOSE floor reached 1,997 million shares (+9.23%), equivalent to a value of VND56,415 billion (+8.68%).

For foreign investors, last week, this group of investors had a strong net selling move with the value at the end of the week reaching 7,691 billion VND. The focus belonged to VPB (VPBank, HOSE) at 1,752 billion VND, HPG (Hoa Phat Steel, HOSE) at 1,601 billion VND,FPT (FPT, HOSE) at 592 billion VND. On the opposite side, SSI (SSI Securities, HOSE) with 281 billion VND, PDR (Phat Dat Real Estate, HOSE) with 238 billion VND, GMD (Gemadept, HOSE) with 198 billion VND - the 3 stocks with the most net buying.

According to experts, the last session of the week was evidence of profit-taking pressure after a long period of hot market growth. In the short term, the adjustment pressure still exists, VN-Index will likely retreat to test the support zone of 1,570 - 1,580 points - an area that can act as an accumulation base before the market finds new growth momentum.

"Explosive" stock group

Vietnam's stock market is approaching the FTSE Russell upgrade review, expected to be announced in October. Many securities companies have given quite optimistic assessments, with the possibility of upgrading being assessed at 80-90% thanks to the gradual untangling of bottlenecks, especially related to foreign investors' transactions.

To date, Vietnam has met almost all of FTSE Russell’s criteria, except for the provision on “payment of costs related to failed transactions”. This mechanism is currently being implemented at securities companies and will be a key point in the upcoming review.

Ahead of the upgrade, the stock market has witnessed an impressive increase. The VN-Index jumped more than 560 points (+52%) compared to the bottom in April 2025 and continuously set new highs. Along with the market's increase, there are more and more billion-dollar order matching sessions, raising the liquidity level to 30,000 - 50,000 VND per session, including a record trading session on August 5 with a continuous order matching value of up to 86,000 billion VND.

In that context, the group of securities stocks became the focus, playing a leading role in the growth momentum with impressive profitability of VIX (VIX Securities, HOSE), SHS (Saigon - Hanoi Securities, HOSE), VND (VNDirect Securities, HOSE), SSI (SSI Securities, HOSE),... In addition, there are also small and medium-cap groups that are being traded at high P/E levels.

In many reports from securities companies, this industry group is forecasted to increase by at least 25% in 2025 compared to 2024. The story of upgrading the market in September is still attractive enough for cash to continue to flow into stock groups, of which securities are the group that directly benefits.

Investors who are holding are advised to continue holding their positions, as the uptrend is only in its early stages. Partial profit-taking during hot uptrends is necessary, but at the same time, investors should be ready to accumulate again when this group of stocks enters short-term corrections.

3 bank stocks still have room to increase by 28%

Accordingly, MBS Research said that the recent increase in bank stocks mainly comes from a favorable macro environment, loose monetary policy, a legal framework supporting the real estate market and the impetus from public investment. In addition, the expectation that Vietnam's stock market will be upgraded in September 2025 also contributes to attracting interest in bank stocks thanks to large capitalization, high liquidity, and suitability to the tastes of foreign investors.

However, these positive factors have largely been reflected in prices. Meanwhile, the average profit growth of the whole industry is only moderate, about 15% - 20% in the period 2025 - 2026.

The P/B of the entire banking industry is currently 19% higher than the 5-year average, indicating that the short-term price increase is narrowing. However, the MB Securities Analysis Group - MBS Research still points out 3 stocks with potential thanks to reasonable valuations and positive profit prospects.

For CTG ( VietinBank , HOSE) , the target price is 65,000 VND/share, compared to the price on August 22 of 50,900 VND, the stock still has room to increase by 28%. The analysis unit expects credit growth to reach over 15% in 2025, profit after tax to reach 30,352 billion VND, up 19.4% over the same period, thanks to asset quality that is superior to the whole industry, along with high profit potential supported by abundant reserve buffer.

Next, VCB (Vietcombank, HOSE) is valued at VND 79,300/share, with room to increase by 23%, net profit in 2025 and 2026 is expected to increase by 5.7% and 10.8% respectively over the same period, thanks to (1) accelerated public investment disbursement progress, (2) low lending interest rates in the context of ambitious GDP targets, (3) recovery of the real estate market.

Finally, HDB (HDBank, HOSE) , valued by MBS at VND39,450/share, has a potential to increase by 22%. The current credit limit for HDB is about 35%, allowing the bank to pursue an ambitious credit growth plan of 32% in 2025. MBS forecasts that HDB's net profit will still complete 100% of the yearly plan. In addition, HDB is also one of four banks allowed to lower the required reserve ratio under the compulsory transfer plan, helping to expand credit space.

VN-Index before Fed rate cut

On August 22, at the annual conference of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented that the US labor market is in a state of balance. However, this balance is created by "both labor supply and demand going down".

According to analysts, the above comments show that Powell left open the possibility of cutting interest rates at the policy meeting on September 16-17. However, this will depend largely on the employment and inflation reports that will be released before that time. Investors also increased their forecasts for the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Accordingly, the probability of a 25 basis point (0.25%) reduction is now up to nearly 90%, higher than 75% before Powell spoke.

This is also one of the important information for the stock market in general and the Vietnamese stock market in particular, especially for foreign money flow.

Looking back at history, the Fed’s interest rate cuts do not necessarily bring immediate benefits to the stock market. In fact, in the short term, in the early stages of the interest rate cut cycle from 2000 to the present, the VN-Index has tended to decrease. The reason is that interest rate cuts often occur in the context of a weakening economy that needs to be stimulated.

However, in the medium and long term, when the loosening policy gradually permeates, the stock market often recovers and enters a new growth cycle. Therefore, investors need to be cautious in the short term, but with a long-term vision, holding stocks can bring benefits thanks to the market recovery when the policy is effective.

Typically, from September 18, 2007 to December 16, 2008, the Fed cut interest rates 10 times, down -5.25% (an average of 0.53% each time), VN-Index recovered strongly from the bottom in 2007 and increased by 84.56%. Or most recently, in December 2024, the Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point cut in the base interest rate, bringing the range down to 4.25%-4.5%. Since the announcement, VN-Index has increased by more than 29%.

ABS Securities believes that with the large openness of the Vietnamese economy and the key influence of the US on the global economy as well as the Vietnam-US relationship, the Fed's easing policies and the scenario of a hard or soft landing of the US economy will directly impact Vietnam. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor developments to make timely assessments and forecasts.

Comments and recommendations

Mr. Phan Van Trang, consultant, Mirae Asset Securities, commented, The Vietnamese stock market has experienced a week of trading with large fluctuations. The strong increase in profit-taking psychology at the end of the week shows the differentiation and cautiousness of investors when approaching high price areas.

Going into next week, the market is expected to react positively after the Fed Chairman signaled a possible interest rate cut. This event is expected to reduce pressure on exchange rates and possibly end the 10-session streak of foreign net selling, opening up opportunities for cash flow to return to the market.

The long-term outlook for the market remains positive, based on a solid macroeconomic foundation: active support policies, a low interest rate environment, growth in operating profits of listed companies, and the target of market upgrade in September.

In terms of industry groups and stocks, The market is expected to continue to show clear differentiation, requiring investors to have a careful selection strategy. In particular, Securities are expected to maintain their leading role thanks to the momentum from the market upgrading process, while the Banking group is likely to enter a differentiation phase after the recent strong increase.

In contrast, Real Estate and Construction may be under short-term adjustment pressure, but the long-term outlook remains positive thanks to the boost from accelerated public investment towards the end of the year to complete key projects, along with the highlight from the simultaneous groundbreaking of 250 projects and works with a total investment of up to 1.28 million billion VND nationwide on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of National Day.

In addition, Steel also emerged as a potential bright spot in the year-end period, thanks to the effects of anti-dumping measures to protect domestic enterprises' market share and the recovery prospects of civil real estate and construction.

In the short term, investors should prioritize a holding strategy and be ready to sell when their targets are reached. If the market corrects to around the support zone of 1,570-1,600 points, investors can consider disbursing part of their investment in stocks with good business results and benefiting from market upgrade expectations. In case institutional cash flow does not reappear, investors can reduce the proportion of stocks to manage risks.

Asean Securities believes that VN-Index will increase volatility next week, moving deeper into the overbought zone. With short-term trading, investors with a large cash balance can disburse in parts during fluctuations, prioritizing leading sectors with support from macro policies: Banking, Securities, Real Estate...

With the long-term buy and hold school, investors can maintain their current position, especially with stocks with low capitalization. Increasing the proportion should be done during the decline phase of the leading stocks with profit growth prospects in the period of 2025 - 2026.

TPS Securities comment, The short-term support zone plays an important role. If the demand in this zone is not strong enough, the index may retreat to lower support levels around 1,590 points. From a broader perspective, although there may be a short-term correction, according to technical analysis, the market is still in a medium- and long-term uptrend.

Dividend schedule this week

According to statistics, there are 20 enterprises that have decided to pay dividends for the week of August 25-29, of which 16 enterprises pay in cash, 2 enterprises pay in shares, 1 enterprise gives bonus shares and 1 enterprise pays mixed dividends.

The highest rate is 45.2%, the lowest is 3%.

2 companies pay by stock:

Black Cat Thermal Engineering JSC (BMK, UPCoM), ex-right trading date is August 25, rate 18%.

Dong A Ton Corporation (GDA, UPCoM), ex-right trading date is August 26, rate 30%.

1 company rewards shares:

Tan Cang Sea Services JSC (TOS, UPCoM), ex-right trading date is August 26, rate 45.2%.

1 business pays mixed:

PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation (GAS, HOSE) pays dividends in two forms: cash and bonus shares. With bonus shares, the ex-dividend date is August 28, at a rate of 3%.

Cash dividend payment schedule

*Ex-right date: is the transaction date on which the buyer, upon establishing ownership of shares, will not enjoy related rights such as the right to receive dividends, the right to purchase additional issued shares, but will still enjoy the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.

Code	Floor	GDKHQ Day	Date TH	Proportion
TRS	UPCOM	8/25	10/9	15%
TD6	HNX	8/25	9/9	3%
CHP	HOSE	8/26	24/9	12%
BLN	UPCOM	8/27	9/29	6%
NBW	HNX	8/27	September 30	16%
HGM	HNX	8/27	9/26	45%
PHR	HOSE	8/27	9/26	13.5%
DNA	UPCOM	8/27	15/9	15%
TDT	HNX	8/28	9/29	5%
SZL	HOSE	8/28	19/9	30%
CAT	UPCOM	8/28	9/22	20%
PAN	HOSE	8/28	15/9	5%
ILB	HOSE	8/28	15/9	14.7%
GAS	HOSE	8/28	11/25	21%
PCE	HNX	8/28	9/26	25%
SNC	UPCOM	8/29	2/10	12%
ISH	UPCOM	8/29	9/25	10%