Morning of December 5: Central exchange rate decreased by 1 VND

The US dollar continued to weaken, not far from a five-week low against a basket of major currencies this morning, as investors prepared for the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates next week.

The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the focus will be on signals on the extent of additional easing in the coming time.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was flat at 99.065 in early Asia. The overnight gain ended a nine-session losing streak, but the index had earlier hit a five-week low and was still headed for a 0.4% weekly loss.

Markets are pricing in about an 86% chance of a Fed rate cut next Wednesday, and possibly two to three more cuts next year, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

Fed officials are closely watching the labor market to determine whether the economy needs more support. Data released last night showed initial jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low, but the number may have been skewed by the Thanksgiving holiday.

The economic data picture remains incomplete after the record-long government shutdown delayed some reports and prevented some data from being collected. The monthly jobs report, which is normally released on Friday, has been delayed, and last month's figures have not been released.

However, one of the Fed's preferred inflation measures, the PCE price index, will be released later Friday, although the data is for September. Economists surveyed by LSEG forecast the core PCE rose 0.2% for the month.

“A 0.2% increase or less would encourage the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate next week,” Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note to clients.

“Our analysis suggests the risk is a weak increase of just 0.1% in core PCE,” he continued.

The dollar was little changed, holding around 155.18 yen. In Asia, the euro held steady at $1.1647, while the pound held steady at $1.3326, after retreating slightly from a six-week high hit on Wednesday.

The US dollar has been under further pressure in recent days as investors consider the possibility that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett will become Fed Chairman after Jerome Powell's term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more interest rate cuts.

Next week will see global markets enter a frenzy of monetary policy decisions. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks off on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday. The following week, major central banks including the ECB, Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and Bank of Japan will also meet to decide policy.

Three Japanese government officials told Reuters the BoJ is likely to raise interest rates this month, although the outlook beyond that remains uncertain, with markets only pricing in a full rate hike in 2026 and about a 50% chance of another one.

The Australian dollar was steady at $0.6609, after hitting a two-month high of $0.6624 on Thursday. The Canadian dollar was little changed at $1.3961. The Swiss franc was at $0.8035, after falling sharply from a two-week high overnight.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/sang-512-ty-gia-trung-tam-giam-1-dong-174674.html