Morning of December 3: Central exchange rate stable

According to a survey by thoibaonganhang.vn, as of 9am this morning (December 3), the central exchange rate remained unchanged from the previous session. The USD buying and selling prices at all commercial banks were adjusted up and down with a common amplitude of 5-20 VND compared to the previous session.

The dollar was mostly flat on Wednesday as other assets gained traction, but investors looking ahead to 2026 have begun positioning for a Fed rate cut that could weigh on the greenback.

The Australian dollar hit a three-week high of $0.6576 in morning trade yesterday, before easing back after GDP figures came in slightly below expectations.

The euro rose above its 50-day moving average after eurozone inflation data came in slightly better than expected, trading at $1.1629 in early Asian trade.

These fluctuations pale in comparison to bitcoin’s sharp rally, which has helped investors generally take on more risk. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose about 6% to surpass $91,000 overnight.

The Japanese yen held steady at 155.70 yen per dollar, as markets reinforced bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates this month, in contrast to the US, where the possibility of the Fed cutting rates at next week's meeting is priced in at 85%.

The British pound was steady at $1.3222, while the Swiss franc was at $0.8022. The New Zealand dollar hovered around $0.5730.

Looking ahead, expectations of around 90 basis points of US interest rate cuts before the end of 2026, along with the prospect that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be nominated as Fed chairman, are making some investors more pessimistic about the USD.

Hassett, a former Fed chief economist, is seen as close to the Trump administration and has advocated for faster rate cuts. Trump said he would announce his pick for Fed chairman in early 2026.

Deutsche Bank strategist Tim Baker said this week there is room for the dollar to fall about 2% in December, a month when the currency has tended to decline over the past decade.

Analysts at OCBC (Singapore) also forecast the USD will weaken in 2026 as interest rate cuts in the US narrow the interest rate differential with the rest of the world.

“The thinking is very simple,” said Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets. According to him, the market is currently holding a lot of USD in the context of a Fed Chairman who is about to loosen strongly, the US fiscal situation has significantly deteriorated, interest rates are high but about to enter a down cycle, the USD is often weak due to seasonal factors, while the interest rate differential with other economies is at its widest.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/sang-312-ty-gia-trung-tam-on-dinh-174568.html