Another organization raises Vietnam's GDP growth forecast

In the third quarter of 2025, Vietnam's GDP increased by 8.22% over the same period last year. Photo: Hai Nguyen

Good resilience amid global fluctuations

Despite the volatile global economic landscape with many unpredictable factors such as geopolitical conflicts, prolonged inflation and supply chain disruptions, Vietnam has maintained a positive and stable growth rate, not only demonstrating good resilience but also showing strong recovery potential in the medium and long term. This is an important foundation for Vietnam to move towards the target of double-digit growth and become a high-income economy by 2045.

According to Mr. Dominic Scriven - Founder and Executive Chairman of Dragon Capital, the world is currently revolving around five main types of risks: First is currency-related issues; second is internal issues in each country; third is international issues between countries; fourth is climate change issues; and finally, technology issues.

“Looking at the global situation as a whole, the situation is facing many challenges. However, in Vietnam, the picture is somewhat lighter,” said Mr. Dominic.

Overall, Mr. Dominic Scriven said that the macroeconomic situation, business performance and stock market, thanks to the support of the Government and synchronous policies, GDP growth has remained stable over the quarters. It is expected that by the end of 2025, although natural disasters may cause GDP to fall by about 0.5%, the situation is still quite optimistic.

“Looking towards 2026 and the following years, the GDP growth target of 10% is considered feasible. To achieve this, confidence and policy will play a key role,” Mr. Dominic assessed.

In terms of policy, Resolution 68 also clearly emphasizes the role of the private economic sector. Currently, Vietnam has about 5 million individual business households. New tax policies will contribute to bringing the informal sector into the formal sector of the economy. In the next 3-4 years, this driving force can contribute more than 1% of GDP each year.

In terms of confidence, the PMI index has been increasing continuously since the beginning of 2025, reflecting the encouragement from the Government. FDI activities have also increased strongly, especially this year, not only in manufacturing but also in real estate. At the same time, the "key" to growth next year is investment, especially public investment. In addition, returning to Vietnam's traditional driving force of exports, Mr. Dominic Scriven said that this year's export activities have exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts.

Many organizations raise GDP growth forecasts

Thanks to these positive factors, many international organizations have raised their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth. In the latest report published in early December on the global economic outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised up its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.2% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027. This is a positive signal that shows that Vietnam's economy continues to maintain a solid macroeconomic foundation, even when the international trade context is uncertain.

OECD assessed that 2025 recorded a strong "rebound" of the Vietnamese economy, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 8.2% compared to the same period last year. The main drivers continue to come from final consumption, fixed asset accumulation and export of goods and services.

Previously, HSBC also raised Vietnam's growth forecast to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025 of over 8%. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's growth forecast for 2025 from 7.5% to 7.7% in its Economic Outlook Report for the fourth quarter.

Comment (0)