Investment opportunities in 2025 among major variables

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to lower interest rates further. However, looking further ahead, US monetary policy and a host of other factors remain major variables for the Vietnamese economy in the coming year.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to lower interest rates further. However, looking further ahead, US monetary policy and a host of other factors remain major variables for the Vietnamese economy in the coming year.

Forecasts indicate that US interest rates will rise in the near future, leading to a shift in the Fed's monetary policy.

The unknown factor in US monetary policy.

This week, global investors are focusing their attention on Washington, D.C., where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the Fed's policymaking body – is holding its final interest rate decision meeting of the year. In addition to announcing the federal funds rate, the Fed will also release its Dot Plot chart, a visual representation of FOMC members' interest rate forecasts for the coming years.

Investors are placing their biggest bets on a further 25 basis point cut in the Fed's benchmark interest rate. The Fed meeting is attracting even more attention, given that a number of major central banks took strong and early steps in their interest rate cuts last week. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by the largest margin in nearly a decade, from 1% to 0.5%. The European Central Bank (ECB) also cut interest rates to support the economy.

The story of monetary policy in the world's number one economy, along with related issues such as exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates, was also a key variable discussed by leading economists at the "Investment 2025: Decoding Variables - Identifying Opportunities" seminar organized by Investment Newspaper last week. According to Mr. Hoang Quoc Anh, Investment Director of GHG Invest, the developments in 2-year Treasury bond yields suggest a high probability of a third interest rate cut by the Fed, with a reduction of 25 basis points.

Looking further ahead, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, Director of the Institute for Global Financial and Real Estate Market Development Research, is not overly optimistic about the global outlook for the coming year.

Mr. Hieu predicted that US interest rates would rise, leading to a shift in the Fed's monetary policy. Although the exact timing is unclear, the expert believes that the world's number one economy could once again face the risk of rising inflation due to increased commodity prices after tariffs are imposed, a labor shortage caused by new immigration policies, or a budget deficit resulting from income tax cuts. This could lead to the US government issuing high-interest bonds to balance the budget.

“With the above factors, I predict that US interest rates will increase, leading to a shift in the Fed's monetary policy and increasing the value of the USD, putting pressure on the exchange rate,” Mr. Hieu emphasized.

According to this expert, the VND/USD exchange rate could increase by 5% throughout the year and will continue to fluctuate in an upward direction.

Sharing the same view, Barry Weisblatt David, Director of Analysis at VNDirect Securities, believes that inflation risks stemming from President Donald Trump's policies are altering VNDirect's forecasts when developing its base-case scenarios. With the DXY index remaining high, the VND/USD exchange rate will face significant pressure. Barry Weisblatt David also left open the risk that the State Bank of Vietnam might have to raise interest rates if exchange rate pressure gets out of control.

Meanwhile, Trinh Ha, a strategist at Exness Investment Bank, believes that Trump's policies will follow a certain trajectory. The positive aspect is that the Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2025, and measures to ease oil and gas restrictions may somewhat alleviate inflationary pressure. Despite the slowdown, as the Fed continues to cut interest rates, business and individual incomes will continue to rise, thereby boosting investment channels.

With the USD likely to maintain its strength, Mr. Ha also believes that there is increasing pressure on the exchange rate. However, in the short term, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the US dollar, is currently at 106-107 points, reflecting investor expectations and having been somewhat pushed too high. Once the year-end seasonal factor is excluded, a cooling of inflation will alleviate some of the pressure on the USD.

Colorful "corner pieces"

The year 2025 presents both challenges and opportunities for the Vietnamese economy. Similar to the "corner pieces" of a Rubik's Cube, these international macroeconomic variables take on different colors from various perspectives. Beyond the Fed's monetary policy, the impact of US trade policy on Vietnam under Donald Trump is also an unknown quantity, with many conflicting viewpoints.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu believes that Vietnam's heavy reliance on the US market is a risk. However, tariff decisions are not solely based on trade surplus figures, but also on other issues such as US-China competition and immigration with Mexico. Therefore, this expert expects that the US may not impose additional tariffs on Vietnam.

Vietnam still has ample room for growth from free trade agreements (FTAs), along with favorable geopolitical advantages, including proximity to China – the world's second-largest economy, facilitating trade.

In addition, several global challenges, such as geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict, or the new government in Syria, will create global instability, which could negatively impact a highly open economy like Vietnam.

Despite facing numerous challenges, Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Banking (Citi Bank Vietnam), believes that Vietnam still has significant room for growth from free trade agreements (FTAs), along with favorable geopolitical advantages, including its proximity to China – the world's second-largest economy – facilitating trade connections and production relocation. Increased spending also contributes significantly to economic growth.

Survey data from NielsenIQ Vietnam shows that approximately 35% of respondents believe economic growth will exceed 6.5%, while 45% believe in growth between 5.5% and 6.5%. According to Ms. Dang Thuy Ha, Director of Customer Behavior Research at NielsenIQ Vietnam, positive developments in exports and imports, FDI, and public investment will further boost consumer behavior in Vietnam.

Opportunities from investment channels

In 2025, with trends and catalysts such as GDP prospects, import and export figures, and the prospect of market upgrade, investors can expect a more positive outlook for the stock market. According to Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Analysis at VPS Securities Company, this is a good time to accumulate shares and also offers more opportunities for short-term trading.

“We do not expect a modest increase of 10-12%, but even higher. Investors can focus on accumulating high-quality stocks, prioritized stocks with positive business results,” Mr. Khanh emphasized.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Digital Business Director (VPBankS), said that VPBankS also has positive confidence in the stock market in 2025, with cash flow returning to a more vibrant state. Of which, the four groups of stocks expected are energy, oil and gas, real estate, retail and banking.

Market valuations are quite reasonable for long-term investment, with Vietnam's P/E ratio being more attractive due to its growth story. According to Mr. Le Quang Hung, Director of Investment Analysis at Techcom Capital, investment allocation should not be limited to stocks, but can also include fixed-income assets such as bonds, deposits, and certificates of deposit. New policies and laws have introduced regulations related to the bond market, increasing transparency and protecting investors, which is crucial for the sustainable development of the bond market and gradually regaining investor confidence.

New asset classes like cryptocurrencies are also attracting attention as investment channels today. With recent fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, the increasing proportion of investments in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, especially among young people, shows that the world is gradually accepting cryptocurrencies as an asset class for portfolio diversification.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/co-hoi-dau-tu-nam-2025-giua-cac-bien-so-lon-d232536.html