Maybank: A great opportunity for Vietnamese retail in 2026

Entering 2026, Vietnam's retail sector continues to be considered one of the bright spots in the economy, with prospects bolstered by strong corporate profit growth, an improving macroeconomic environment, and expectations of revaluation as Vietnam moves closer to emerging markets.

Customers shopping at Winmart supermarket. Photo courtesy of Thu Trang/News and Ethnic Minorities Newspaper.

According to a newly released report by Maybank IBG Research, retail sales for the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 9.3% year-on-year when calculated using the nominal Consumer Price Index (CPI) and 7.0% when calculated using the real CPI. This recovery continues from the post-pandemic period but has not yet reached pre-COVID-19 growth rates (11–12%), mainly due to weak consumer sentiment.

Maybank forecasts that Vietnamese consumer sentiment will improve significantly in 2026 thanks to four groups of factors: i) More favorable macroeconomic conditions, especially reduced tariff risks and faster Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth; ii) Government support packages continuing to boost aggregate demand; iii) An improved labor market, with less pressure on individual businesses from policy; iv) A more positive asset effect due to a stable financial environment.

Notably, Maybank assesses the government's target of an average GDP growth of 10% per year for the 2026-2030 period as a key driver that will make consumption the "central engine" of economic growth. Maybank experts expect the government to continue maintaining policies supporting aggregate demand to boost domestic consumption.

Retail profits: Growth momentum remains very strong.

The report indicates that listed retail businesses continued to record outstanding results in the third quarter of 2025, with net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (NPAT-MI) increasing by 96% year-on-year. Prior to that, industry-wide profits had increased by 53% in the first quarter and 51% in the second quarter of 2025.

According to Maybank, the drivers of growth stem from: improved consumer spending; continued expansion of the modern retail market share; and increased operating leverage as businesses reach larger scales.

The results show the industry's ability to maintain strong profitability, with all major businesses exceeding expectations, despite slow improvement in demand. Maybank forecasts that Vietnam's retail sector profits will increase by 55% in 2025 and further increase by 26% in 2026.

Maybank emphasized that the legal reforms being implemented by the Vietnamese government will create long-term advantages for large, transparent businesses that adhere to good governance standards.

Some key changes include: stricter regulation of informal retail channels and counterfeit goods; increased requirements for tax compliance, electronic invoicing, and data storage; and initiatives to promote e-commerce, modern retail, and transparent supply chains.

The new regulations are eroding the price advantage of informal retail channels – which rely on lump-sum taxes, cheap products, no invoices, or uninspected goods – while creating space for modern businesses to expand their market share through competitive pricing and consumer trust.

However, the Vietnamese retail market will continue to be fragmented. Except for the information technology (ICT)/consumer electronics sector, the penetration of modern retail in other segments remains low. This indicates significant growth potential for leading businesses, particularly in grocery, pharmaceuticals, and jewelry.

According to Maybank, a combination of positive macroeconomic fundamentals, superior earnings growth, regulatory reforms promoting transparency, and expectations of a market upgrade will strongly support the industry's valuation outlook. The report states: "Even if share prices weaken in the short term, the industry's fundamentals remain solid, and current valuations present attractive opportunities."

Considering macroeconomic factors, profitability, structural reforms, and upgrade prospects, Maybank maintains a positive outlook on Vietnam's retail sector in 2026. Leading businesses will not only benefit from the consumer recovery but also from the market restructuring process towards transparency and formalization.

With a stable foundation, attractive valuations, and strong growth momentum, 2026 is expected to be a crucial breakthrough year for Vietnam's retail industry.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/maybank-co-hoi-lon-cho-ban-le-viet-nam-trong-nam-2026-20251211115055281.htm