ADB raises its forecast for Asian economic growth despite tariff risks.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its growth forecasts for member economies thanks to strong export demand, despite concerns about US tariff policies. Notably, Vietnam received the highest growth forecast revision in the region.
In its latest Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB forecasts that its 46 member economies will grow by 5.1% this year, higher than its September forecast. This figure is projected to rise to 4.6% in 2026. Vietnam stands out as a bright spot, with the ADB revising its growth forecast to 7.4%, a significant increase from its previous projection.
According to the ADB, the adjustments to the forecasts for the aforementioned economies are mainly due to the fact that the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs has not been too severe so far. However, the bank still warns that uncertainties surrounding US tariff policy remain a major obstacle to Asia's economic outlook. Escalating trade tensions and financial market volatility could put pressure on exports and investment, and exacerbate debt and capital flow issues in the region.
Looking at the overall regional picture, South Asia continues to lead with a projected growth rate of 6.5% this year (up from 5.9% previously), driven by India's 7.2% economic growth. The ADB maintains its 2026 forecast for the region at 6.0% and for India at 6.5%.
Growth forecasts for East Asia have also been revised upward from 4.4% to 4.6% for 2025 and from 3.9% to 4.1% for 2026. This revision is mainly due to stronger-than-expected growth in the region's economies during the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong external demand for electronics-related products.
For China, the ADB revised its 2025 growth forecast upwards from 4.7% in its September report to 4.8%, while the 2026 forecast remained unchanged at 4.3%. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, coupled with new government support policies, even as domestic demand remains weak. However, the outlook for the Chinese economy remains affected by the prolonged slowdown in the real estate sector.
Southeast Asia is assessed to remain resilient thanks to positive third-quarter results in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. The ADB forecasts the region to grow by 4.4% in 2026, a slight decrease from this year's 4.5%.
Regarding inflation, the ADB forecasts that inflation across the region will fall to 1.6% this year and to 2.1% in 2026, unchanged from its previous September report. The bank stated that the monetary easing cycle continues as inflation rates remain below or within target ranges in 13 of the 17 member economies that have inflation targets. The ADB expects monetary policy in the region to remain flexible amid expectations of further interest rate cuts in the US.
Source: https://vtv.vn/adb-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-kinh-te-chau-a-100251211070452351.htm
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