Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 face numerous pressures as security and political instability increases in some regions, inflation remains high, and global trade recovers slowly.
Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 face significant pressure due to increasing political and security instability in some regions, persistently high inflation, and a slow recovery in global trade. According to Nguyen Anh Son, Director of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), tight monetary policies in many major economies are disrupting financial markets and exchange rates in developing countries, leading to continued weakening consumer demand. Simultaneously, many countries are reinstating protectionist measures and tightening safety, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation standards for imported goods.
Despite facing the aforementioned difficulties, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, under the regular and direct guidance of the Government and the Prime Minister , has proactively coordinated with relevant ministries and agencies, closely monitoring the international and domestic situation to have timely and effective policy responses to specific issues; at the same time, it has implemented many effective solutions to support associations, industries, and the business community in developing production and business, and promoting exports.
According to preliminary statistics from the Customs agency, in the first 11 months of 2025, rice exports reached over 7.53 million tons with a value exceeding US$3.85 billion, and an average export price of US$511.09/ton; a decrease of 10.9% in volume and 27.4% in value compared to the same period in 2024 - the highest rice export year ever. In addition, some markets recorded a decline compared to the same period, such as Indonesia (down nearly 96.38%) and Malaysia (down 32.5%). Increased rice exports to markets such as Ghana (up 52.64%), China (up 165.14%), Bangladesh (up 238.48 times), and Senegal (up approximately 73 times)... compensated for the decline in Indonesia, Cuba, and Malaysia. By October 2025, Vietnam's rice exports will focus on high-quality white rice and various types of fragrant rice, accounting for 69% of total rice exports by October 2025.
Identifying rice as a special commodity.
According to representatives from the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the projected rice production in 2026 is approximately 43 million tons, a decrease of about 0.2 million hectares compared to the same period due to reduced planting area in various seasons. Representatives from the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection recommended that localities focus on restoring production after the impact of natural disasters, concentrating on the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring crop, ensuring the planting area, variety structure, and planting season. Simultaneously, localities should accelerate the implementation of the Sustainable Development Project for 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice cultivation linked to green growth in the Mekong Delta by 2030, and develop consumption and promote exports of this rice product.
Forecasting for 2026, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department Tran Quoc Toan predicted that the rice industry will be simultaneously impacted by the possibility of the Philippines resuming imports from January 2026, the recovery of China, Bangladesh, and African markets, along with the positive effects of trade agreements. The improving quality of Vietnamese rice will also help increase its competitiveness.
In the context of current production, consumption, and export, Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association, suggested that rice should be identified as a special commodity that needs to be closely monitored to ensure both domestic consumption and food security, while effectively meeting export demands.
In addition, it is necessary to establish a stable raw material supply area that meets food safety requirements, traceability, quality stability, and brand building; and to determine production that meets the requirements, standards, and quantities of importing countries.
Regarding leveraging the benefits of free trade agreements, Mr. Ngo Chung Khanh, Deputy Director of the Multilateral Trade Policy Department, believes that Vietnamese rice businesses have not yet fully exploited large, high-value markets. He proposed developing a clear strategy for utilizing FTAs, promoting the development of Vietnamese rice brands, and strengthening coordination between government agencies, associations, and businesses.
Anh Tho
Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-khau-gao-tim-du-dia-tang-truong-tu-cac-fta-va-thi-truong-moi-102251211110915337.htm
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