Bluechip stocks - Destination of foreign cash flow

On July 17, the VN30 index closed at 1,634.7 points, up more than 20 points, equivalent to 1.26%, while the VN-Index reached 1,490 points, up 0.99%. This is the highest point in the history of the VN30.

These 30 leading stocks in the market continuously attract buying cash flow from both domestic and foreign investors.

VN30 reached a new peak in the trading session on July 17.

Previously, in the first 6 months of 2025, the growth of the VN-Index was also supported by a number of large-cap stocks.

MB Securities Corporation (MBS) said that as of July 4, 2025, although the VN-Index had recovered strongly by more than 300 points since the April 2 event, the increase had not spread to all stock classes. The group of small and medium-cap stocks still grew slowly, even decreasing in price compared to the increase of the main index.

In the large-cap group, the biggest contribution mainly comes from Vingroup stocks. Only 12/50 stocks with the largest market capitalization have increased more strongly than the VN-Index since March 31, 2025, while about 9 stocks have increased less than the VN-Index. In fact, nearly half of the Top 50 stocks have not yet recovered to pre-tariff levels.

Price movements of Top50 large-cap stocks from March 31 (before the tariff shock) to July 4, 2025.

According to MBS's assessment, in the context of the US tariff policy announced to be applied to Vietnam more favorably than to competing countries, and at the same time the prospect of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market becomes clearer, the net selling momentum of foreign investors is expected to be strongly reversed in the second half of 2025, the destination of foreign cash flow is mainly large-cap stocks with sufficient foreign room ratio.

As of July 4, 2025, VN-Index is trading at 14 times P/E, higher than the average of the last 3 years (13.5x), but still 17% lower than the 3-year peak (16.9x in Q4/2021).

The valuation of the VN30 group (with the majority of capitalization being the banking group) is 12.7 times P/E, about 3% higher than the average of the last 3 years of 12.3 times, but still lower than the peak of 15 times in the fourth quarter of 2021. This shows that the valuation of the market in general and the large-cap group in particular is still attractive compared to profit growth as well as the market's upgrade expectations.

In the second half of 2025, MBS believes that cash flow will spread to large-cap stocks that have not increased strongly in price in the past time thanks to attractive valuations and profit growth potential.

In the base scenario, with a 17% growth in profits of listed companies, and a valuation of 13.5 - 13.8 times P/E, this securities company expects the VN-Index to reach 1,500 - 1,540 points in the last months of the year.

In a more positive scenario, the impact of US tariff policy is less than expected, foreign capital flows strongly into the Vietnamese market thanks to the prospect of upgrading, the market's profit growth is expected to reach 19%, P/E is expected at 13.5 - 14 times, the VN-Index can advance to the 1,580 point area by the end of the year.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/co-phieu-bluechips---dich-den-cua-dong-tien-ngoai-d334260.html