Foreign Capital Flow Continues Toward MSN During ETF Restructuring Period in Quarter IV

The addition of MSN shares to global indices and investment portfolios demonstrates foreign investors' confidence in Masan 's financial health, capitalization scale and long-term growth prospects. In the context of Vietnam increasingly attracting international capital flows thanks to expectations of market upgrade, enterprises with transparent operating platforms, large scale and sustainable profitability like Masan are considered top candidates in the portfolios of foreign funds.

The attraction of a stable business platform

In the first 9 months of 2025, Masan is expected to complete 90% of the annual base profit plan, reflecting operating efficiency exceeding expectations. This result comes from the even growth in many key business segments with a focus on the consumer - retail sector.

In the retail sector - WinCommerce (Owner of the WinMart/WiN/WinMart+ chain) recorded revenue in the third quarter of 2025 exceeding VND 10,000 billion, the highest level since its establishment. By the end of September, WCM had opened 464 new stores, of which nearly 75% were WinMart+ models in rural areas. The Central region contributed 227 stores, equivalent to 50% of the total new openings in the year, showing that WCM's key expansion strategy is on the right track. Overall, all new stores opened since the beginning of the year have brought in positive profits.

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In August, Masan MEATLife (MML) achieved revenue of VND999 billion (+11.1%), profit after tax increased by 60.5% to VND35 billion, showing the trend of consumers shifting to products with clear brands and origins.

In the high-tech materials segment, Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCOM: MSR) benefits from the recovery in tungsten prices, while Phuc Long and Masan Consumer continue to boost sales, optimize operations and strengthen customer experience. Thanks to the integrated cross-chain model of "production - distribution - retail", Masan controls costs well, optimizes the supply chain and creates sustainable profit margins, factors that make MSN shares attractive to long-term institutional investors.

Push from favorable macro context and market upgrade

After a long process of meeting the criteria on transparency, liquidity and accessibility for foreign investors, Vietnam was officially upgraded from “frontier market” to “emerging market” by FTSE Russell in the review on October 8, 2025. This upgrade is expected to take effect from the September 2026 classification period, after the next review in March 2026.

This is an important turning point for the Vietnamese capital market, opening up opportunities to receive billions of dollars in capital flows from ETFs, passive funds and global institutional investors. According to SSI Research's estimates, ETF capital flows alone could be poured into Vietnam by about $1 billion in the upcoming portfolio restructuring periods. However, in the short term, the scale of cash flows will depend on the international economic context and the risk appetite of investment funds in emerging markets.

In that context, stocks with solid fundamentals, large scale and high liquidity are expected to attract foreign capital flows the earliest, notably Masan (HOSE: MSN). With a capitalization of over VND 133,000 billion (~USD 5 billion), a foreign ownership ratio of over 70% and an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem model, Masan is considered a promising candidate in the global index basket after Vietnam officially upgraded. SSI Research forecasts that MSN shares could attract about USD 98 million in foreign capital flows in the first phase when international funds restructure their portfolios.

In addition, the policy to stimulate domestic consumption, in which VAT is reduced to 8% for essential goods (applied until the end of 2026), is contributing to boosting purchasing power and increasing retail sales, creating a solid foundation for businesses in the consumer - retail industry to continue growing.

According to Bao Viet Securities (BVSC), MSN stock continues to be recommended OUTPERFORM, with a target price of VND 106,000/share. BVSC assesses that Masan owns a rare closed value chain in Vietnam - connecting production, food processing, modern distribution and consumption - thereby creating a resonance effect between the WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials and Phuc Long segments.

This combination not only helps Masan maintain its profit growth rate, but also increases its attractiveness to international investors, especially in the context of foreign capital shifting strongly to businesses with a solid domestic consumption foundation and stable profitability.

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Despite the positive outlook, experts also noted some short-term challenges that consumer-retail businesses in general and Masan in particular need to cope with. These include input cost pressure, fierce competition in the modern retail market, and global economic fluctuations that may affect domestic purchasing power. In addition, the digital transformation process and governance standardization to meet the requirements of international investors also require businesses to maintain financial discipline and optimize operations.

However, analysts say that with large capitalization, solid financial structure and integrated ecosystem, Masan has high adaptability, helping to minimize risks and maintain stable growth momentum.