Gasoline and oil prices forecast to increase and decrease in opposite directions during the operating period on September 11

Photo caption

Buying and selling gasoline at a business location in Hanoi . Photo: VNA

A machine learning-based fuel price forecasting model developed by the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that, in the price adjustment period on September 11, 2025, retail gasoline prices may only decrease slightly by 0.2-0.5% compared to the previous adjustment period, if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not allocate or utilize the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analyst at VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model, which applies artificial neural network (ANN) and supervised learning algorithms in machine learning, predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 101 dong (0.5%) to 19,749 dong/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only decrease by 45 dong (0.2%) to 20,385 dong/liter.

VPI's model forecasts that retail oil prices will fluctuate in opposite directions this period. Specifically, fuel oil prices may decrease by 2.8% to 14,940 VND/kg, while diesel prices may increase slightly by 1.1% to 18,673 VND/liter and kerosene prices may increase slightly by 0.2% to 18,347 VND/liter. VPI predicts that the inter-ministerial committee of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to allocate or utilize the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund this period.

On the global market, oil prices fluctuated sharply following escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the close of trading on September 9th (US time), Brent crude rose 0.6% to $66.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also increased 0.6% to $62.63 per barrel. Both types of oil had risen nearly 2% immediately after Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasts that global crude oil prices will face significant pressure in the coming months due to rising inventories. This will limit the upward momentum of oil prices. According to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories increased last week, market sources said. The EIA will release official data on September 10th at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Meanwhile, traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. Lower rates would reduce consumer borrowing costs and could boost economic growth and oil demand. In addition, a key factor supporting oil prices is the news that eight members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers (collectively known as OPEC+) have agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October. This figure is significantly lower than the previous monthly increase and also lower than some analysts' forecasts.

PV (compiled)

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/du-bao-gia-xang-dau-tang-giam-trai-chieu-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-11-9-520398.html