Coffee prices suddenly "feverish" again at the weekend, many reasons cause the market to increase

This weekend, the coffee price "fever" seems to be returning, as the world price has continuously increased by 3 digits for the past 3 consecutive days. The market witnessed a spectacular price increase on the weekend, with an increase of up to 5.3% on both London and New York exchanges.

Coffee price today December 7, 2024

World coffee prices have been rising by three digits in the last sessions of this week. In the days before the sharp drop, many investors increased their purchases, causing robusta to return to above the $5,000 threshold.

Domestic coffee prices have increased by a total of more than VND10,000/kg in just the past two consecutive days. By the morning of December 7, the price had increased by about VND5,000/kg, currently trading at around VND120,000/kg.

This week, coffee prices fluctuated with two unprecedentedly deep declines, specifically the January 2025 contract fell by 783 USD; but immediately after that, there were three sessions of sharp increases with a total of 527 USD. As a result, the price of coffee still decreased by 256 USD/ton for the whole week. While the price of robusta coffee on the London floor continued to decrease quite sharply throughout the week, Arabica coffee not only "recovered what was lost", but also increased by nearly 200 USD compared to the end of last week.

StoneX broker Tomas Araujo said market reports of increased buying activity in trading contributed to the price rise, while concerns about the possibility of continued shortages in coffee supplies also helped push prices higher.

According to some businesses, coffee prices in the Central Highlands increased faster than world prices because many businesses took advantage of the price reduction at the beginning of the week to buy to pay off contract debts. In addition, the trend of the global coffee market is still low supply and high consumer demand.

Currently, the harvest in many places has not yet reached its peak, reaching only about 30% and farmers are not under economic pressure, so the recent price reduction has not resulted in a sell-off. Heavy rains at the time of harvest have made businesses worried about both delivery time and quality. Therefore, when the world market recovered, domestic prices have increased sharply again. Industry insiders believe that Vietnam's late harvest continues to stimulate price increases. Farmers are not in a hurry to sell, so limited supply pushes prices up.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, unseasonal rains are likely to appear widely in the Central Highlands region when many places will have moderate rain, heavy rain and some places will have very heavy rain. Besides the increase in coffee prices, information about rain is also something that many coffee growers are looking forward to because the rain has decreased recently and the land has started to dry up.

Domestic coffee prices on December 5 continued to increase sharply by 5,000 - 5,700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Braziliancoffee)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (December 6), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange continued to increase by 3 digits, the delivery term for January 2025 increased by 258 USD, trading at 5,153 USD/ton. The delivery term for March 2025 increased by 243 USD, trading at 5,116 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor also increased sharply, with the March 2025 delivery period increasing by 16.75 cents, trading at 330.25 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery period increased by 16.30 cents, trading at 327.60 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on December 5 continued to increase sharply by 5,000 - 5,700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,134	- 12
DAK LAK	120,000	+ 5,500
LAM DONG	118,500	+ 5,000
GIA LAI	120,000	+ 5,700
DAK NONG	120,200	+ 5,500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) reported preliminary export data for November, showing that coffee exports increased by 5.7% to a total of 4.42 million bags, including 3.72 million bags of arabica and 694,209 bags of robusta.

Brazilian farmers have now sold most of last year's crop and appear to be in no hurry to bring the rest to market, based on domestic and international price trends.

High coffee prices have made many buyers cautious and expect prices to fall in the near future, so they have not bought to store.

According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam's coffee exports in November decreased by 49.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching only 60,000 tons and total exports from January to November decreased by 14.3% compared to the same period, down to 1.2 million tons. However, coffee export turnover in 11 months increased by 35.4% to a record 4.9 billion USD.

According to Reuters, trading activities in Vietnam are quite quiet because fresh coffee beans from the 2024-2025 crop have not been harvested in large quantities. A trader in the Vietnamese coffee belt said: "Prices on the London floor are volatile, both farmers and traders are currently very cautious in trading decisions." He also added that, "coffee beans will probably be harvested in large quantities in the next 10-15 days. Currently, farmers have only harvested about 30% of the output."

According to experts, not only in Vietnam, coffee prices in the world have also increased recently mainly due to many reasons, including the impact of climate change, the El Nino phenomenon causing drought across coffee growing regions worldwide, leading to a decrease in supply. In addition, military conflicts in the world have also caused transportation costs and many other costs in export to increase.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-7122024-gia-ca-phe-bat-ngo-sot-tro-lai-ngay-cuoi-tuan-nhieu-nguyen-nhan-khien-thi-truong-tang-cao-296514.html