Vietnam's coffee exports in the first two months of the 2024-2025 crop year (October and November) decreased by 36.6% compared to the same period last year. This year, the export season started later due to prolonged rains causing delays in harvesting, while market demand also eased after significant fluctuations in previous years, according to the General Department of Vietnam Customs.
Coffee prices today, December 24, 2024
World coffee prices adjusted upwards again at the start of the week. However, robusta rose slightly back to the $5,000 mark, while arabica recovered well.
Domestic coffee prices fluctuated between 120,500 and 121,300 VND/kg. The market continued to be supported by the delayed harvest in Vietnam and concerns about drought affecting Brazil's production. Information about Typhoon No. 10 bringing heavy rain to key coffee-growing regions in Vietnam pushed robusta prices back up.
Information from market analyst Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group indicates that supplies from Vietnam are currently increasing as the harvest expands after a delay caused by recent heavy rains. Previously, in the world's largest robusta coffee producer, prolonged rainy weather had significantly slowed down the harvest. Exports in January may be slower due to the Lunar New Year holiday on January 29, 2025.
Weather forecasters expect conditions to improve slightly this week, a welcome sign for farmers as drier weather is more favorable for ripening, harvesting, and drying. Current crop yield forecasts range from 26 to 30 million bags. More detailed forecasts will be released as the harvest progresses into the new year.
According to a consulting group from Safras & Mercado, the estimated total coffee crop in Brazil for 2025/26 will be around 62.45 million bags, a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. Of this, arabica coffee production is expected to decrease by 15% to 38.35 million bags.
Arabica coffee prices recovered thanks to a weaker US dollar and forecasts of a reduced Brazilian crop. Brazil is also believed to have sold 79% of its 2024/25 coffee crop, compared to only 69% at the same time last year. However, the upward momentum in arabica prices is somewhat limited due to the recent sharp decline in the Brazilian Real, which has only recovered slightly from its record low against the US dollar. The weak Real encourages Brazilian coffee producers to increase sales.
Meanwhile, arabica coffee prices were supported by below-average rainfall in the world's largest arabica coffee producing country. Brazilian meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's largest arabica coffee growing region, Minas Gerais, received 43.6 mm of rain last week, equivalent to 83% of the historical average rainfall.
In addition, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to their highest level in two and a half years on December 23rd, reaching 990,395 bags. Meanwhile, robusta coffee inventories on the ICE exchange decreased slightly to 3,995 lots compared to 3,996 lots on December 20th of the previous week.
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| Domestic coffee prices fell by 500 VND/kg on December 23rd in some key purchasing areas. (Source: Braziliancoffee) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the close of trading on Monday (December 23), robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange saw a slight correction, with the January 2025 contract rising by $6 to trade at $5,008/ton. The March 2025 contract increased by $1 to trade at $4,935/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange rose sharply, with the March 2025 contract increasing by 2.25 cents to trade at 327.25 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 contract rose by 2.55 cents to trade at 321.85 cents/lb. Trading volume was average.
Domestic coffee prices on December 23rd decreased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
On the afternoon of December 23rd, the tropical depression strengthened into a storm and became Typhoon No. 10 (international name PABUK) operating in the East Sea. By this morning (December 24th), forecasts almost unanimously agreed that Pabuk is likely not to dissipate completely at sea but will move inland into Vietnam.
The last storm of 2024 - Typhoon No. 10 (Pabuk) - is almost at rest over the South China Sea. In most news reports and models on the morning of December 24th, Pabuk was predicted to make landfall in Vietnam instead of dissipating over the sea.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts that Pabuk will strengthen slightly this afternoon with wind speeds reaching 55 km/h (Category 7). After that, the system will weaken quite rapidly, and its remnants will make landfall in southern Vietnam tomorrow, December 25th, around Vung Tau city.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts that on the afternoon of December 24th, Pabuk will strengthen slightly with wind speeds reaching 55 km/h (Category 7). Afterward, the system will weaken quite rapidly, and its remnants will make landfall in southern Vietnam tomorrow, December 25th, around Vung Tau city. The JTWC reports that most models predict similar results.
The storm brought heavy to very heavy rain to coastal areas of the central provinces. In the eastern part of the Central Highlands, there was moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing very heavy rain and thunderstorms, with rainfall amounts ranging from 30-60mm, and some areas exceeding 100mm.
The weather continues to raise concerns about disruptions to the ongoing harvest, while also raising questions about drying quality and its impact on next season's yield.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam's coffee production this season is expected to reach approximately 1.6 million tons. Domestic coffee consumption in Vietnam is forecast to reach 270,000-300,000 tons. The increase in domestic consumption combined with low production could significantly impact the supply of raw materials for export. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), after consecutive declines in yield and production for two seasons, this year Vietnamese farmers are harvesting even the smaller beans instead of discarding them to take advantage of higher prices.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-24122024-gia-ca-phe-dieu-chinh-tang-truc-ky-nghi-le-giang-sinh-xuat-khau-giam-than-trong-voi-bao-so-10-298404.html
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