Coffee prices corrected at the end of the week, forecast for market prices this week?

Last week, the US Department of Agriculture also announced that it had lowered its forecast for coffee supply in most of the world's leading coffee supplying countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia due to unfavorable weather conditions for coffee to grow well.

World coffee prices have temporarily adjusted after a hot session, but still remain high - causing speculators to take short-term profits. Concerns about supply shortages remain as intra-session fluctuations show that buyers still have the upper hand. Arabica coffee prices have not fallen much due to concerns about inventory and a weaker US dollar.

Inventory data reports from two futures exchanges showed that certified inventories continued to fall to a 24-year low, which is the main concern of the market at the moment.

Meanwhile, weather information for coffee growing regions is still worrying investors. According to local weather reports, the main coffee growing regions in southern Brazil are still hot and dry, which will seriously affect the next coffee crop's yield, but rains expected this weekend will improve the prospects for a bumper crop next year.

The Real exchange rate was pushed to high levels, causing Brazilian farmers to reduce coffee export sales.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian Trade Agency, the world's third largest robusta producer, reported October exports of only 265,930 bags, down 275,337 bags, or 50.87% year-on-year, bringing the cumulative coffee exports for the first seven months of the current coffee crop year (April 2023 to March 2024) to a total of 1,592,838 bags, down 38.62% year-on-year.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 18/9: Cao nhất trong 12 tháng qua,

Domestic coffee prices slightly decreased by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities in this weekend's trading session (December 2).

At the end of this week's trading session (December 1), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for January 2024 delivery increased by 39 USD, trading at 2,572 USD/ton. The March 2024 delivery period increased by 18 USD, trading at 2,528 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery decreased by 0.35 cents, trading at 184.35 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery price increased by 0.95 cents, trading at 181.70 cents/lb. Trading volume was very high.

Domestic coffee prices slightly decreased by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities in this weekend's trading session (December 2).

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,080	+ 20
DAK LAK	59,900	- 200
LAM DONG	58,900	- 200
GIA LAI	59,700	- 200
DAK NONG	59,900	- 200

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

Vietnam is the third largest coffee supplier to the US market, behind only Brazil and Colombia.

According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in mid-November 2023, the price of robusta coffee in the domestic market increased following the world price. Currently, the average coffee price in the Central Highlands provinces is about 58,200 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak province is 58,500 VND/kg.

Coffee industry experts say that prices of this commodity continue to increase due to concerns about supply shortages and reports of continued declines in global inventories. Notably, the price of robusta coffee (a type of coffee commonly grown in our country) is forecast to increase due to scarce supply while demand increases at the end of the year.

However, last week, the US Department of Agriculture also announced that it had lowered its forecast for coffee supply in most of the world's leading coffee supplying countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia due to unfavorable weather conditions for coffee to grow well. The shortage in supply is an opportunity for Vietnam's coffee exports to continue to increase in value.

According to statistics up to mid-November this year, Vietnam exported more than 1.33 million tons of coffee, worth 3.4 billion USD. However, the export figure has gradually decreased in the last two months, because the inventory of Vietnamese coffee has decreased to the lowest level ever.

Source