Oil prices continue to surge, while agricultural product prices fall across the board due to profit-taking pressure.

At the close of trading yesterday (October 3rd), the energy market was in positive territory, with oil prices soaring by more than 5% and heading towards $80 per barrel amid concerns that escalating conflict could disrupt global crude oil flows. Conversely, agricultural commodity prices reversed course and fell across the board due to profit-taking pressure. At closing, the MXV-Index rose 0.63% to 2,246 points.

The volatile Middle East is heating up the global oil market.

At the close of trading yesterday, world oil prices recorded a sharp increase amid concerns that the conflict in the Middle East could continue to escalate following Iran's attack. At the end of the session, WTI crude oil rose 5.15% to $73.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased 5.03% to $77.62 per barrel.

Iran's surprise attack on Israel in the early hours of October 2nd has further escalated tensions in the region. Market concerns are growing about the possibility that Israel might target Iranian oil infrastructure in retaliation. The Pentagon said it is discussing a possible response to the Iranian missile attack with Israeli officials but declined to provide details, leaving open the possibility of attacks on Iranian crude oil infrastructure.

Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with a production of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to 3% of global production. If the war between the two countries escalates, not only will the supply from Iran be affected, but the flow of about 20 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz, a strait under Iranian control, will also be put on alert.

Analysts warn that such escalation could lead Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz or even attack infrastructure in countries with close ties to the US in the region, as happened historically in 2019. Despite this, Gulf Arab states have sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in the conflict, fearing that further violence could threaten regional oil facilities.

In other developments, Houthi forces continue to issue warnings to Western commercial ships passing through Bab El Mandeb. The Houthis have carried out nearly 100 attacks on ships crossing the Red Sea since November 2023 and say they will not stop unless Israel ceases its military operations.

Meanwhile, supply pressures from OPEC, as unrest disrupted supplies from Libya and Iraq fulfilled its production cut commitments to offset overproduction, also supported the price increase. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26.14 million barrels per day last month, down 390,000 barrels per day from a month before its lowest level this year.

Corn prices break a four-day winning streak.

Contrary to yesterday's energy market trend, the agricultural commodities market was dominated by red. Specifically, December corn futures reversed course and fell nearly 1% yesterday, ending a four-session winning streak. Besides pressure from the ongoing harvest, the market also faced pressure from technical selling after corn's strong recovery this week.

According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, cumulative grain exports from the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year to October 2nd reached 10.65 million tons, a significant increase compared to 6.68 million tons in the same period of the previous crop year. In October alone, Ukraine exported 197,000 tons of grain, compared to only 7,000 tons in the same period last year. This boost in exports from Ukraine has allayed concerns about potential disruptions to shipments from the Black Sea due to geopolitical conflicts, which could put pressure on prices.

Conversely, in its weekly Export Sales report, the USDA indicated that US corn sales for the week ending September 26 reached 1.68 million tons, a surge of nearly 215% compared to the previous week. This figure also exceeded market expectations, suggesting strong demand for US corn despite some shipping disruptions. This factor helped curb yesterday's price decline.

Wheat's three-day winning streak came to an end yesterday. The market was under pressure from the open and ultimately closed down more than 11 cents.

The strike by port workers on the U.S. East Coast has entered its third day. President Biden has stated that progress has been made in negotiations between laborers and employers. Employers have indicated their willingness to engage in new talks after the President publicly urged wage increases. However, there is still no new information on the negotiations. The port workers' strike will likely impact U.S. grain exports, thereby boosting sales in the wheat market.

HQ (according to News Report)

Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/gia-dau-tiep-tuc-nong-gia-nong-san-dong-loat-giam-truoc-ap-luc-chot-loi-394801.html