The Vietnamese economy still has plenty of room for growth.

According to Citi Bank's forecast, the Vietnamese economy will experience strong growth in 2024, and this growth momentum is expected to continue in the medium and long term.

Citi Bank: The Vietnamese economy still has plenty of room for growth.

According to Citi Bank's forecast, the Vietnamese economy will experience strong growth in 2024, and this growth momentum is expected to continue in the medium and long term.

At the seminar "Investment 2025: Decoding Variables - Identifying Opportunities" organized by Investment Newspaper on December 12th, Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Clients - Capital Markets Division, Citibank Vietnam, presented a paper on the risks of potential trade tensions if Donald Trump is re-elected as US President for a second term and the opportunities and challenges for Vietnam in this context.

Citi Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow strongly in 2024, and this growth momentum will continue in the medium and long term. For 2025, Citi Bank predicts Vietnam's economic growth could reach 6.6%, higher than the IMF's forecast.  

Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung believes that Vietnam still has much room for growth thanks to the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) signed with countries and regions. These are considered "reserves" for Vietnam to continue growing and expanding development opportunities.

Vietnam also has geopolitical advantages, being close to the world's second-largest economy, China, and having favorable trade connections. Consumer spending also significantly supports economic growth. Currently, Vietnam has a population of over 100 million, with an estimated GDP per capita of approximately US$4,700 in 2024. By the end of 2025, GDP per capita could reach US$5,000.

Furthermore, the shift in manufacturing is bringing advantages to Vietnam. Our country is benefiting greatly as businesses relocate their production to countries in the Asian region, with Vietnam being a bright spot.

Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Clients - Capital Markets Division, Citibank Vietnam.

“Previously, we often questioned whether Vietnam was a global manufacturing hub, but now it is clear that Vietnam is. In the trend of manufacturing businesses relocating to Asia, three countries are the most popular destinations: Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Vietnam, in particular, is a bright spot in attracting FDI. In terms of GDP, Vietnam is the country with the highest FDI attraction,” said Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung.

In the medium and long term, Vietnam still has great potential to attract FDI thanks to its geopolitical advantages, young population, and strong consumer spending. In particular, Vietnam is currently implementing mergers and streamlining of its administrative apparatus, strongly reforming its institutions, creating favorable conditions for the entire business environment, contributing to economic growth, and simultaneously possessing strong finances to cope with less favorable scenarios.

Given these advantages, the Vietnamese economy is being driven by positive factors such as exports of consumer goods and computers. The real estate market is recovering, and the banking sector is also benefiting from increased corporate bond purchases, reducing risks.  

"Proof for the above analysis is that more and more international organizations have acknowledged Vietnam's high economic growth, which is a positive sign," Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung emphasized.

However, Vietnam currently has the third-largest trade surplus with the US, so it wouldn't be surprising if Vietnam were to be subject to higher tariffs during President Donald Trump's term, Mr. Trung said. In addition, exchange rate issues could also impact the State Bank's monetary policy. In that case, the Vietnamese currency needs to be strong to withstand depreciation. Against this backdrop, the Citi Bank representative suggested that the government could implement more fiscal policies alongside monetary policy to further support the economy.  

Source: https://baodautu.vn/citi-bank-kinh-te-viet-nam-van-con-rat-nhieu-du-dia-cho-tang-truong-d232443.html