With discipline in management, Vietnam can achieve 8-10% growth by 2026

Believing in the inherent strength of Vietnam's economy, experts emphasize the need to control fiscal and monetary policies well to create a foundation for growth in 2026.

"Vietnam Investment Forum 2026" attracts many economic experts - Photo: Organizing Committee

Exchange rate stability remains key to maintaining confidence

"Maintaining a stable exchange rate not only helps businesses feel secure in making business plans but also strengthens the confidence of international investors, creating conditions for the State Bank to continue its growth support policy without causing instability to the capital market" - Dr. Le Anh Tuan, General Director of Dragon Capital, shared at the "Vietnam Investment Forum 2026" organized by VietnamBiz on November 4.

According to Mr. Anh Tuan, the risk of inflation is currently low, because domestic consumption is not strong enough to create price pressure. However, the more notable factor is the exchange rate.

"As long as the exchange rate remains stable, monetary policy should remain loose. To what extent it will be looser is yet to be determined," he said.

From an international perspective, World Bank Vietnam economist Sacha Dray said that Vietnam has implemented many measures to control capital flows and monetary policies, although this is not easy in the context of unpredictable global fluctuations.

He highly appreciated Vietnam's maintenance of abundant foreign exchange reserves, increasing the opportunity to support exchange rate stability, a particularly important factor at present. At the same time, he acknowledged the flexibility in monetary policy management, allowing the economy to better adapt to international fluctuations.

However, experts still note that domestic interest rates are showing signs of increasing, while world interest rates are on a downward trend.

Mr. Dang Van Thanh, Chairman of TTC Group, commented that the variables of exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation are "three small essays" that businesses must understand to operate effectively.

"In any cycle, any industry has its ups and downs. The important thing is to manage, control and operate well to avoid being eliminated," Mr. Thanh shared.

Strong internal strength, careful calculation for sustainable growth

Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, said that despite many fluctuations, Vietnam has maintained a growth rate of 6.5 - 7% and in some years exceeded 8%. This is proof that endogenous capacity is getting stronger and stronger.

In 2025, although the economy faced many difficulties from the beginning of the year, when the world's general purchasing power weakened, challenges related to reciprocal taxes, interest rate risks..., Vietnam's GDP still achieved good growth momentum.

Dr. Binh said that this year's total import-export turnover is expected to reach 800-850 billion USD, a record high, showing that Vietnamese goods still maintain their competitive position and international reputation.

At the same time, retail and service revenue continued to increase by 9-11%, reflecting that the purchasing power of 100 million people is becoming a sustainable domestic driving force.

Besides, public investment is promoted with high disbursement rate and many key projects are put into operation, creating new development space and promoting aggregate demand.

In the private sector, the Government ’s Resolution 68 has breathed new life into the business community. The number of newly registered and re-operated enterprises has increased significantly, while disbursed FDI capital has shown an improving trend.

According to Mr. Binh, macroeconomic and political stability, along with the confidence of international consumers and investors, are important grounds to believe that growth in 2026 will be even better.

Dr. Le Anh Tuan said that GDP growth in 2026 can absolutely reach 8-10% if confidence and discipline in management are maintained. The mindset is always optimistic, but actions must be calculated.

Experts assess that 2026 is considered a "preliminary year" opening a new race for the 2026 - 2030 period. The private economy and capital market are the driving forces for long-term development. The State needs to create a transparent and favorable environment, and businesses must be proactive in adapting and developing.

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ky-luat-trong-dieu-hanh-viet-nam-co-the-dat-tang-truong-8-10-nam-2026-20251104183441458.htm