Why Central Asia is less interested in Trump's victory.

While Trump's victory is attracting attention in many parts of the world , Central Asian countries are maintaining a cautious and indifferent attitude. With a history of failed cooperation with the US, countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have learned to maintain a pragmatic foreign policy and avoid close ties to any particular power.

Photo caption — Donald Trump speaks to supporters at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Florida, on November 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/VNA

According to the Sabah Daily (Türkiye) on November 9th, while the US and many countries are buzzing with excitement over Donald Trump's return, Central Asia is showing a rather lukewarm attitude. Leaders from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan see little reason to expect that Trump's "America First" policy will bring significant benefits to the region. Bruce Pannier, a veteran journalist covering the region, bluntly stated: "Central Asia may almost disappear from the US foreign policy 'radar.' Trump showed little interest in Central Asia during his first term as US president, even while US troops were still present in Afghanistan." This indifference stems from unfulfilled promises of the past. Washington's goals of "promoting democracy, containing Russian influence, and protecting energy resources" have all failed to achieve the desired results. History shows that US-Central Asia relations have experienced many ups and downs. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the United States had a "golden opportunity" to exert influence in the region. Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan with its large oil and uranium reserves, were once highly anticipated by Washington. However, the US underestimated the complexity of Central Asian societies. Historical ties with Russia, intricate clan structures, and challenges in nation-building created numerous obstacles. Attempts to promote rapid economic reforms often backfired, leading to increased inequality and corruption. After 9/11, Central Asia regained attention as a military logistics hub in Afghanistan. The US established bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, human rights tensions led to Uzbekistan expelling US troops in 2005, and the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan closed in 2014.

Central Asian leaders today pursue a more pragmatic foreign policy. As Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated: "We don't believe in zero-sum games. We want to replace 'Great Game' with 'Great Benefit' for everyone." Expert Chinara Esengul from the Peace Nexus Foundation observes: "Effective geopolitics for Central Asia is not about aligning too closely with the US or any other superpower, but about maintaining an equal distance from all superpowers." However, there is still room for cooperation, particularly in the fields of minerals and technology. Bruce Pannier points out that the US has recently focused more on business relations with Central Asia, largely due to the need for strategic raw materials. Washington is also interested in developing an East-West trade corridor to avoid Russia. It could be argued that Central Asia's cautious attitude toward Trump's victory in the US is a result of the region's historical experience and pragmatic approach to international relations.

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