February 24th marks the second anniversary of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. On the one hand, the two sides remain locked in a stalemate with no prospect of peace negotiations. On the other hand, the West is increasing pressure on Russia through sanctions.
Increased stress
On February 24th, European Union (EU) member states are expected to announce the 13th package of sanctions targeting Russia. This includes banning 193 entities and individuals from traveling to or doing business in Europe. The new sanctions also focus on the network supporting the Russian military, particularly the supply chain for manufacturing drones. The United States has also announced new sanctions targeting more than 500 entities in Russia.
On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the country's spring offensive was not as successful as expected and that Russia still controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory. Changes in military leadership in Kyiv have also significantly impacted the battlefield situation. Concerned about the consequences for regional security if the US withdraws and Ukraine fails, European countries have recently increased aid, pledging to supply more weapons to Kyiv. This marks a significant shift in European attitude compared to the early days of the conflict, but experts believe it is still not enough to help Ukraine reverse the situation.
According to Reuters, the French President's office announced that President Emmanuel Macron will chair an international conference to support Ukraine on February 26th. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced it will disburse $880 million to Ukraine in the third tranche of its $15.6 billion aid package over four years, approved in 2023. Earlier in February, EU leaders agreed to provide a $54 billion aid package to Ukraine between now and 2027. Meanwhile, the Kiel Institute estimates that the US has already spent $66 billion on Ukraine. Republican lawmakers in the US House of Representatives are delaying the approval of a new $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.
The Russian economy is growing.
In its second year, Russia made a series of strategic and tactical changes on the battlefield and launched significant attacks on seemingly impregnable Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbass region, such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka. However, there were still no signs of a significant turning point in the situation.
Economically, the IMF forecasts that Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.6% this year. Meanwhile, oil revenues are recovering and unemployment will be at historically low levels. According to Reuters, Russia's success is due to the independent and strong role of its central bank. Since 2022, the Russian central bank has implemented large interest rate hikes (currently at 16%) to control inflation.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian economy in 2023 remained generally stable as Western partners fully met funding needs. Lower inflation allowed the National Bank of Ukraine to cut interest rates and remove some capital controls. However, the outlook for 2024 remains uncertain. With most Western funds yet to be transferred to Ukraine, the central bank is proposing to fund the budget solely by printing more money, but this could significantly undermine economic stability. Furthermore, the conflict is draining government resources. Military spending has risen to 20% of GDP, with half the budget dedicated to war costs.
THANH HANG
Source
![[Photo] Prime Minister Le Minh Hung presides over the thematic session on promoting science and technology development and innovation.](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2026/06/23/1782207872934_ndo_br_dsc-1724-jpg.webp)
