| Pepper price forecast September 20, 2024: Supply shortage will continue until the next harvest. Pepper price forecast September 21, 2024: Will the upward trend continue? |
Pepper price forecast for September 22, 2024 shows mixed trends. According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam's pepper exports in the first half of September 2024 reached 7,278 tons, valued at US$45.4 million, an increase of 1.1% in volume and a significant increase of 72.4% in value compared to the same period last year.
Cumulatively from the beginning of the year to September 15, 2024, pepper exports reached 190,208 tons, valued at US$923.3 million, a decrease of 2.5% in volume but an increase of 44% in value compared to the same period last year. Indonesia and Brazil remain the two main suppliers of pepper to Vietnam, with volumes reaching 359 tons and 245 tons respectively.
In the domestic market, today's pepper prices (September 21, 2024) in key producing regions showed mixed increases and decreases of 500-1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, trading around 148,000-152,000 VND/kg. The highest purchase price was in Dak Lak province at 152,000 VND/kg.
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| Pepper price forecast September 22, 2024: Pepper supply will continue to be limited for the next 3 years. |
Accordingly, the price of pepper in Dak Lak is being purchased at 152,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Chu Se (Gia Lai) is being purchased at 149,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Dak Nong today is 150,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
In Binh Phuoc, the price of pepper today is 149,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. In Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price is 148,000 VND/kg, also down 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
According to the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the close of the most recent trading session, IPC listed Indonesian Lampung black pepper at US$7,715/ton and Muntok white pepper at US$9,305/ton.
Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper is priced at US$6,900/ton. Malaysian ASTA black pepper is priced at US$8,800/ton; the price of Malaysian ASTA white pepper reached US$11,200/ton.
Vietnamese black pepper is trading at US$6,800/ton for the 500 g/l grade; US$7,100/ton for the 550 g/l grade; and white pepper at US$10,150/ton.
The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) acknowledges that for many years, the global pepper market has been plagued by oversupply, leading to sharp price drops. In Vietnam, at one point, pepper prices fell to only 35,000-40,000 VND/kg, discouraging farmers from continuing production and causing them to switch to other crops with higher economic returns, most notably durian. Consequently, the area under pepper cultivation has also decreased significantly.
While pepper cultivation covered over 130,000 hectares in 2020, it has decreased to approximately 120,000 hectares by the end of 2023. Furthermore, prolonged intense heat due to the El Nino phenomenon has also impacted yields. These factors will lead to a significant reduction in Vietnam's pepper production in 2024.
Globally, pepper inventories are decreasing. These are the reasons why pepper prices are rising again. Due to a sharp decline in pepper cultivation area and lower economic efficiency compared to other crops, the supply of pepper will continue to be limited for the next three years.
*This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the time and location.
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