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The last ship carrying Ukrainian grain under the Black Sea Grain Initiative left the port of Odessa before the agreement expired on July 17. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) had warned of catastrophic consequences for global food insecurity if the agreement was not extended.
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| A grain-carrying ship, part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, is anchored in Türkiye. |
Great damage
Despite efforts from all sides, there are no signs that Russia agrees to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the obligations to remove obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertilizers under the initiative have not been fulfilled, and the main goal of the agreement – supplying grain to countries in need – has also not been achieved. Putin has left open the possibility of rejoining if commitments to Russia are met.
Meanwhile, in an effort to salvage the Black Sea Grains Initiative, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations have offered a concession to address Russia's complaints regarding Western sanctions hindering its exports of food and fertilizers. The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on the situation in Ukraine on July 17th, with the participation of top diplomats from several countries.
According to the latest data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, approximately 33 million tons of agricultural products have been exported under the grain agreement. Low- and lower-middle-income countries received only 10% of the maize and 40% of the wheat shipped under the grain agreement. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture and Customs estimates that if the agreement collapses, Kyiv would suffer losses of up to $500 million per month.
Plan B
Since July 2022, the United Nations and Türkiye have been mediating the Black Sea Grains Initiative agreement to help address the global food crisis. The agreement has been extended three times, with the most recent extension taking effect on May 18 and lasting for two months.
The talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Istanbul in early July fueled speculation that, if Russia refused to allow Ukrainian grain ships safe passage through the Black Sea, the Turkish navy might escort them. However, in a statement to Politico, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bondar, denied this.
Observers suggest that Ukraine has other plans to protect ships transiting the Black Sea. The country is establishing a $500 million guarantee fund to cover any damages or expenses incurred. The Ukrainian Grain Association says this fund will function like state insurance. Ukraine is proposing that the European Commission pay for the fund, and Ukraine will reimburse the costs. Ukraine is also exploring alternative routes to the Black Sea. The nearest port to Ukraine, Constanta in neighboring Romania, has emerged as a potential alternative.
According to Reuters, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused the UK and the US of involvement in Ukraine's attack on the Crimean Bridge on the evening of July 16, which killed two people. The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) stated that Ukraine carried out the terrorist attack using a drone. Russia has launched a criminal investigation into the incident.
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