'Fearful' of stock market correction after a series of hot increases

'Nơm nớp' đợt điều chỉnh chứng khoán sau chuỗi tăng nóng - Ảnh 1. — The stock market has increased very strongly recently - Photo: QUANG DINH

At the end of last week, VN-Index closed at 1,630 points, down 10.69 points, equivalent to 0.65% compared to the reference. However, last week, VN-Index also increased by 45 points (equivalent to 2.84%) compared to the previous week.

Stocks enter "sensitive" zone

Mr. Phan Tan Nhat - Head of Market Strategy Department of SHS Securities - said that the market trend is still growing after VN-Index surpassed the historical price peak in 2022.

However, VN30 is increasing strongly, heading towards the price zone around 1,800 points. This is currently a very sensitive price zone of VN30, corresponding to a 60% increase from the lowest price zone in April 2025 after the tariff news appeared.

"We see that many stocks after a period of strong growth are at risk of reaching a peak, ending a sudden strong price increase trend," said SHS experts. In fact, in history, there has never been a consecutive price increase with a strong increase of around 60% of the VN-Index and VN30 without a strong correction.

Therefore, SHS experts continue to note the "need to be cautious" factor. Investors should closely monitor current market developments. Speculative positions and portfolio structures should carefully evaluate the portfolio and consider selling weakened stocks.

At the same time, control short-term positions, as well as rotate cash flow reasonably, when the uptrend of VN-Index is still maintained. Investors maintain a reasonable proportion, investment targets towards codes with good fundamentals, leading in strategic industries, and outstanding growth of the economy .

Analyst Quach Anh Khanh - Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) - commented that the VN-Index continued to fluctuate within a wide range last week. The index's upward momentum was reinforced by the leadership of banking stocks and Vingroup stocks.

Cash flow in the market showed excitement and determination, rotating quickly between industry groups to seek profit opportunities. However, VCBS experts said that profit-taking pressure increased significantly at the end of the week, especially in stocks that had increased sharply before.

According to VCBS analysts, fluctuations are inevitable when the index is on a trend to conquer higher points.

Therefore, they recommended that investors limit buying stocks that have shown strong growth momentum, and should prioritize choosing stocks that show signs of attracting cash flow and rebounding from the most recent accumulation base to consider increasing the proportion during this period.

VN-Index aims for 1,800 points in 2026

Similarly, SSI Securities Consulting and Investment Analysis Center (SSI Research) is also concerned that the market may face short-term fluctuations due to increased profit-taking pressure after a period of high margins at the end of July.

However, in the long term, SSI Research still expects the VN-Index to reach the 1,750 - 1,800 point range in 2026. The main driving force comes from the solid recovery of profit growth, supported by the recovery of the real estate market and public investment.

In addition, the favorable interest rate environment, concerns about tariff risks are gradually easing, especially expectations of market upgrade in October.

SSI Research maintains its forecast for 2025 net profit after tax (NPATMI) growth for the entire market at 13.8%, equivalent to 15.5% YoY growth in the second half of the year, although there may be slight adjustments after the financial reporting season ends.

The market's forward P/E valuation has increased from 8.8X (April 9) to 12.6X as of August 6, but according to SSI, it is still lower than the 5-year average of 13X, and the high range of 15-17X during the previous market peak.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/nom-nop-dot-dieu-chinh-chung-khoan-sau-chuoi-tang-nong-2025081810414983.htm