'Accelerate' the last months of the year for high growth target

According to the Vietnam Economic Outlook Report for the fourth quarter of 2025 by the Global Economic and Market Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore) on November 10, for Vietnam to achieve growth of 8.3 - 8.5% in 2025, GDP in the fourth quarter will have to increase from 9.7 - 10.5%, a challenging figure in the current context.

The land in Tran Bien ward, located next to the main road, adjacent to Dong Nai river, will be put up for auction. Photo: Cong Phong/VNA

Growth breaks through amid challenges, exchange rate remains under pressure

Vietnam’s economic growth has so far exceeded expectations, despite risks from US tax policy, according to a UOB report. With a growth rate of 7.85% in the first three quarters of the year, the outlook for the full year remains positive.

However, according to UOB, due to the high base in 4Q24, the final quarter of the year is expected to be challenging amid trade tensions and tariffs. Therefore, UOB maintains its 4Q25 growth forecast at 7.2%, while revising up its growth forecast for Vietnam this year to 7.7% from 7.5%.

“However, to achieve the official growth target of 8.3-8.5%, the fourth quarter of 2025 will need to achieve a very high growth rate of 9.7-10.5%,” said the Global Economics and Market Research Department of UOB Bank.

With strong economic growth in the first nine months of this year and no signs of slowing down, UOB believes that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) currently has little room to loosen monetary policy. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remain, with September inflation reaching 3.38% year-on-year, up slightly from 3.24% in August 2025.

Year-to-date, average inflation reached 3.3% (overall) and 3.2% (core inflation), with core inflation exceeding that of 2024 (2.9%) and 2023 (3%).

Although the correlation between the USD/VND exchange rate and the DXY index (USD strength) is limited, the VND usually reacts slower than other currencies in the region when the USD weakens. In particular, when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue cutting interest rates, the domestic exchange rate may be more stable from the first quarter of 2026.

According to forecasts, the USD/VND exchange rate will be at 26,400 in the fourth quarter of 2025, then gradually decrease to 26,300 (first quarter of 2026), 26,200 (second quarter of 2026) and 26,100 (third quarter of 2026).

Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Head of Global Market and Economic Research, UOB Bank (Singapore).

Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Head of Global Markets and Economics Research, UOB Bank (Singapore) shared: The outlook until the end of 2025 remains positive thanks to strong performance in the first three quarters of the year, especially in the export sector.

Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies in ASEAN with a forecast of over 7%, surpassing Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.6 - 5.3%), Singapore (3.52%) and Thailand (2 - 3%). The manufacturing sector is the differentiator and the main driving force, bringing higher added value than resource-based sectors such as agriculture or mining, thereby consolidating Vietnam's strong position in the region.

At the recent regular Government meeting in October 2025, reports from many localities showed their efforts to contribute to Vietnam's overall results, creating momentum for socio-economic development in the final months of the year.

Vice Chairman of the Hanoi People's Committee Truong Viet Dung said that in the first 10 months of 2025, the local budget revenue reached 583,000 billion VND, equal to 113.5% of the estimate and increased by 37% over the same period, the highest increase in 5 years. Foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction reached 4 billion USD, 2.3 times higher than the same period; tourism and service sectors continued to be vibrant; the business environment maintained an improving trend with nearly 28,000 newly established enterprises and a total registered capital of nearly 350,000 billion VND. A notable bright spot is the progress of public investment disbursement. For the first time, Hanoi's disbursement rate exceeded the national average, reaching 55.4%.

In the first 10 months of 2025, Chairman of Hai Phong City People's Committee Le Ngoc Chau said that the total State budget revenue in the area reached 162,000 billion VND, exceeding the Prime Minister's estimate by nearly 10% and increasing by 31.1% over the same period last year. The city has 6,258 newly registered enterprises, up 33.2%; total registered capital reached 169,000 billion VND, up 161% over the same period.

Regarding the disbursement of public investment capital, the total capital allocated is nearly 36,000 billion VND with more than 3,000 projects. Up to now, Hai Phong City has disbursed about 74.6% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister and aims to complete at least 100% in 2025...

Be cautious about the impact of US tariffs

Regarding the new US tax policy, UOB experts said that there are still many existing risks. There are currently no specific guidelines on how to define "transshipment" as well as the tax mechanism for each industry. In particular, the furniture industry (HS94), accounting for about 10% of Vietnam's total export turnover to the US, will be the sector most clearly affected when the tax measures come into full effect.

Vietnam is currently a highly open economy, with exports of goods and services accounting for 83% of GDP, second only to Singapore in ASEAN. Therefore, any changes in US trade policy could have a strong impact.

Therefore, according to UOB, although the Vietnamese economy still maintains a positive outlook, Q4/2025 is expected to face many challenges due to the high comparison base of Q4/2024 and new trade barriers. International organizations currently maintain the Q4 growth forecast at 7.2%, but raise the growth forecast for the whole year of 2025 to 7.7% from the previous 7.5%.

In the context of an unpredictable world, which is still an unknown factor, it can impact socio-economic goals. Therefore, identifying and focusing on breakthrough growth drivers in the sprint phase is considered an important task.

One of the top goals set by the Government is to focus all efforts on accelerating the disbursement of public investment capital to reach 100% of the plan by 2025. This is considered the most important "seed capital" to bring money into the economy, create jobs and spread to other areas. National key projects and infrastructure projects connecting regions will be given special priority with disbursement progress closely monitored on a monthly and weekly basis.

Along with investment, the domestic market with more than 100 million people continues to be identified as a support. The Government requires ministries, branches and localities to proactively prepare abundant goods for the end of the year and Lunar New Year, implement programs to stimulate consumption, and effectively connect supply and demand. Maintaining stable prices of essential goods, preventing speculation and hoarding is also a key task to protect consumers and stabilize the macro economy.

In addition to short-term solutions, the Government also emphasizes fundamental and long-term solutions. In particular, institutional improvement and administrative procedure reform associated with digital transformation are considered the "key" to removing barriers to production and business activities. In particular, after the stage of restructuring the administrative apparatus according to the two-level local government model, reviewing to overcome overlaps and inadequacies in regulations, decentralization and delegation of power is an urgent requirement for the apparatus to operate smoothly and effectively.

Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang at the Government meeting on the morning of November 8. Photo: Duong Giang/VNA

According to Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang, from now until the end of the year, regarding the completion of institutions, laws, and administrative procedure reform, the Ministry of Justice will continue to advise and remove difficulties and obstacles caused by legal regulations; review and develop a comprehensive report on the implementation of cutting and simplifying administrative procedures, and report to the Prime Minister before November 15.

Efforts to overcome difficulties to ensure progress of key projects in Dong Nai. Photo: Cong Phong/VNA

Mr. Nguyen Van Thang said that the Ministry of Finance is finalizing the Project on State economic development; urgently building and submitting to the Politburo the Project on economic development with foreign investment capital in November 2025; researching to reduce and simplify procedures for granting investment registration certificates and deploying them online, shortening the time to enter the market; loosening barriers on investment restriction lists, reporting to the Prime Minister on issues beyond its authority, to be completed in December 2025...

Heavy rain, landslides and floods cause many key transport projects to stagnate.
According to the Ministry of Finance, as of October 23, the actual disbursement was VND464,828 billion, equivalent to 51.7% of the plan. Compared to the national average, there are still 29 ministries, central agencies and 16 localities with disbursement rates lower than the average.
To achieve the target of disbursing 100% of the capital plan in 2025, contributing to ensuring economic growth of 8.3 - 8.5%, the Government requires ministries, branches and localities to focus on implementing many synchronous solutions. First of all, units need to seriously, promptly and effectively implement the directions of the Government and the Prime Minister in Resolutions, Official Dispatches and Directives. Heads of ministries, branches and localities must be directly responsible for the disbursement progress, and at the same time proactively overcome shortcomings and learn from the experiences of units with high disbursement rates.
The Ministry of Finance is reporting the disbursement status to the Prime Minister and the Central Inspection Committee on a weekly basis. Ministries, branches and localities need to review the progress of each project in detail, develop weekly plans, flexibly transfer internal capital from slow-moving projects to projects with good progress; and at the same time, prepare payment records immediately for completed volumes, avoiding accumulation at the end of the year.
At the same time, localities need to perfect the two-level government apparatus and arrange specialized personnel, especially in positions related to site clearance and project management, to remove "bottlenecks" in disbursement.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/tang-toc-nhung-thang-cuoi-nam-cho-muc-tieu-tang-truong-cao-20251110131551919.htm