Domestic steel production could rebound in 2025.

Domestic steel demand is projected to increase by 10% in 2025.

Slow down in 2024

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), in November 2024, overall production and sales trends slowed down and decreased compared to October 2024 and the same period in 2023. Crude steel production reached 1.87 million tons, a slight increase of 1.8% compared to the previous month and a 13% increase compared to the same period in November 2023.

Finished steel production of all types reached 2.471 million tons, down 5.2% compared to October 2024 (all steel products recorded a decrease, the largest being galvanized steel sheets and coated steel sheets with a decrease of 10.66%, only hot-rolled coil HRC showed an insignificant increase), but increased 0.8% compared to the same period in 2023 (the growth of the galvanized steel sheet and color-coated steel sheet production was 11.4% and construction steel was 7.6%, while steel pipes decreased by 1%, HRC decreased by 1.3% and CRC decreased by 26.7%).

In the first 11 months of 2024, crude steel production reached over 20.06 million tons, a 16% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Total crude steel consumption reached 19.57 million tons, of which exports reached 2.556 million tons, a sharp increase of 59%. Finished steel production reached 26.948 million tons, a 7.7% increase, driven by breakthroughs in products such as galvanized and color-coated steel sheets (up 25.7%), construction steel (up 11.7%), and steel pipes (up 4%).

Sales of finished steel products also reached 26.776 million tons, an increase of 13%, with cold-rolled coil (CRC) leading the growth at 40.8%, followed by galvanized steel (32.8%) and construction steel (11.9%). Hot-rolled coil (HRC) recorded a slight decrease of 2.2%.

Exports of finished steel products in the first 11 months of 2024 reached 7.646 million tons, a growth of 2.8% compared to the same period in 2023; growth was consistent across all product categories except for hot-rolled coils, which decreased by 31.3%.

According to VSA, the global economy in the first 11 months of 2024 continued to face numerous risks, challenges, and uncertainties; intense strategic competition, military conflicts, and increasing political instability; slow global growth recovery; and non-traditional security challenges directly and multifacetedly impacting the development of many countries and regions.

The socio -economic situation in Vietnam during the first 11 months of 2024 maintained a positive trend, with various sectors and fields achieving significant results that contributed to the overall growth for the year.

It could increase by 8-10%.

According to SSI Research's 2025 Steel Industry Outlook Report, domestic demand is likely to maintain stable growth in the near future, while exports may slow down.

Domestic steel demand is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, as the real estate market experienced a strong recovery in 2024 (the number of new units launched doubled compared to 2023).

Most importantly for the steel industry in 2025, the pressure from imported steel may be eased thanks to protectionist measures. Steel imports into Vietnam in the first 11 months of 2024 increased sharply by 33% to 16.17 million tons, with imports from China soaring by 48.4% and accounting for 68% of total imports.

Imported galvanized steel accounted for 26.7% of domestic production and was equivalent to 15% of total industry production in the first 10 months of 2024. Imported HRC accounted for 75% of domestic production and was equivalent to 182% of total industry production during the same period.

Looking ahead to 2025, competitive pressure is expected to ease if Vietnam can implement more protective measures. The Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an anti-dumping investigation into galvanized steel imports from China and South Korea in June, and HRC imports from China and India in July.

SSI Research experts believe that the final results of this investigation will be announced in mid-2025, but temporary measures may be implemented before then.

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