Stock market recovers, waiting for signal to confirm new trend

Investors await new trends in Vietnam's stock market.

Although liquidity has not improved significantly and cash flow remains cautious, the market has shown signs of returning to balance as the decline at the beginning of the week did not trigger a wave of sell-offs. The index fell below 1,600 points at times but quickly recovered in the following sessions, reflecting that supply pressure has clearly weakened compared to last week.

Divergence continued to be a highlight as industry groups increased and decreased alternately. Information technology groups such as FPT, VEC and DLG led the increase, while many real estate, financial and industrial stocks maintained good demand, as shown by the increase of CII, GEX, VSC, VIX, MBS, LPB, CEO, DXG, DIG, IDC, HDC and NVL. On the contrary, some large-cap stocks such as HVN, BMP, GMD, HAH, STB, VCI, CTG,ACB and the media services group (VNZ, FOX) decreased significantly. Foreign investors continued to net sell nearly VND 2,500 billion on both exchanges, mainly on HOSE.

The market's recovery was reinforced by the weakening of supply after many stocks fell 20-30% from their peaks, causing holders to stop selling at all costs. At the same time, the market received supportive information about the GDP growth target of 10% or more in 2026 and positive assessments from FTSE Russell and Vanguard regarding the possibility of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market, contributing to improving investor sentiment in the short term.

Cash flow continues to shift to mid-cap stocks, especially in the oil and gas, chemical, fertilizer and industrial park sectors, which were once quiet but are attracting new demand thanks to reasonable valuations and less supply pressure. On the contrary, pillar stocks such as banks, securities and Vingroup have traded less actively compared to the previous uptrend.

From a technical perspective, Mr. Dinh Viet Bach, Securities Analyst, Pinetree Vietnam Securities Company, commented: “The market is still in the technical recovery phase and needs another “follow-through” session to confirm the new uptrend. “If the market maintains the 1,600-point zone, the chance of an explosive trading session will increase; on the contrary, losing this zone could cause the index to fall back to the 1,500-1,550-point zone.”

From a strategic perspective, securities companies continue to recommend caution. Vietnam Construction Securities Company believes that the market is entering an accumulation phase, consistent with the strategy of small disbursements during corrections and gradually increasing the proportion when the investment position is profitable. Mid-cap groups such as oil and gas, chemicals, retail and construction continue to be considered reasonable destinations in the current context.

BETA Securities Company also recommends that investors do not chase the market when it increases sharply in the green session, but instead disburse in parts, prioritizing stocks with good fundamentals, stable liquidity and accumulating after the correction. The two groups of banks and securities are still noteworthy as many codes have formed short-term bottoms.

In general, the market is trying to consolidate the price level after a strong correction, with positive signals from cash flow into the mid-cap group and a balanced state around the 1,630-1,640 point range. However, low liquidity and large net selling value of foreign investors show that active cash flow has not yet returned clearly. The development next week will depend on the ability to maintain the 1,600 point mark and the market's reaction at important technical zones is the deciding factor in forming a new trend or returning to a correction state.

CHAU ANH

Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-phuc-hoi-cho-tin-hieu-xac-nhan-xu-huong-moi-post923438.html