Ukraine fears 'self-fulfilling prophecy' in counterattack

Ukrainian soldiers board infantry fighting vehicles in Zaporizhzhia

NBC on August 5 quoted Ukrainian officials and supporters expressing confidence in progress on the battlefield, but warning against what they said were unrealistic media forecasts that could lead to the misunderstanding that Kyiv could not win.

“The two things we always call on our allies are weapons support and patience,” said Yuriy Sak, adviser to the Ukrainian defense minister.

Despite being equipped with new weapons and equipment from the US and other Western countries such as tanks, long-range missiles and artillery shells, Ukraine lacks air power and faces fierce resistance from the Russians.

Ukrainian engineers lose men every day to Russian minefields

The Russians planted countless mines across the front line, set up anti-tank barriers and dug defensive trenches.

Ukraine counterattack fast or slow?

Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, Ukraine has regained control of about 241 ^square kilometers of territory in the south and east, according to Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar.

Mr. Sak and other officials said the Ukrainian military had prioritized preserving its troops and weapons while looking for weaknesses in Russia’s defenses. Ukraine has begun a troop buildup in the south, launching small-scale offensives to test Russia’s lines.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fly a UAV in Zaporizhzhia on August 4.

Some US officials have expressed frustration that Ukraine appears to have been hesitant to deploy some of its best-trained and equipped units, and that they have failed to apply the principles they were trained on.

“There is a frustration that they have not used more of the combat power that they have,” one US official said. Another official said the Biden administration and its allies have provided Ukraine with everything it has requested for its counteroffensive, including 500 tanks and hundreds of armored vehicles.

Ukraine says no specific timeframe for counterattack

"We believe they have a significant combat capability and will use that capability at a time and place of their choosing to defend the homeland and reclaim territory," Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder told reporters.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials deny that the counteroffensive is progressing too slowly. "Look, we are facing an enemy that is outnumbered in manpower, artillery and everything else. We have to be David in the battle against Goliath, which means we have to be smart," Mr. Sak said.

George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said he was concerned that policymakers and the media may have set expectations too high for the Ukrainians.

Those unrealistic expectations may work in Russia's favor, Ukrainian and Western supporters say, because Moscow is betting that NATO allies will eventually tire of providing military aid to Kyiv and will eventually want Ukraine to agree to concessions.

Former US ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor said there was a risk that overly bleak conclusions about Ukraine's prospects could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy".

“If people have the perception that the Ukrainians cannot win, then we will not give them what they need to win,” he analyzed.

Ukraine considers air power one of the key areas where it needs international help.

White House wants to produce more 'essential' ammunition for Ukraine

Without a strong enough air force to clear the way for ground troops, Ukraine is trying to regain territory with only artillery and armored units, former officials and military analysts say.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces have made major advances recently, and neither side has a realistic chance of winning a decisive victory, said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, a US think tank.

Therefore, the US should start preparing for an inconclusive outcome and consider options for a final diplomatic solution, Mr. Charap said.

Source link: https://thanhnien.vn/ukraine-lo-loi-tien-tri-tu-ung-nghiem-trong-phan-cong-18523080510341542.htm