(PLVN) - Currently, international trade is threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. What should Vietnam do to respond to this situation, given that Vietnam is one of the most open economies in the world?
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| Vietnam needs to diversify its export markets soon to avoid being severely affected if a trade war occurs. (Photo: VGP) |
(PLVN) - Currently, international trade is threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. What should Vietnam do to respond to this situation, given that Vietnam is one of the most open economies in the world ?
Is there a risk of a "trade war"?
According to data from the General Department of Customs, in 2024, Vietnam's total import and export turnover is gradually approaching a historical level of 800 billion USD, with exports reaching 405 billion USD. Of this, exports to the United States alone reached nearly 119 billion USD, an increase of 23.3% compared to the same period in 2023. Vietnam has become the 8th largest trading partner and the 4th largest import market of the United States in the ASEAN region. Conversely, the United States is Vietnam's second largest trading partner and its largest export market.
As soon as the United States announced President Trump's re-election, a number of experts offered recommendations on how Vietnam could minimize the risks from the country's new tax policies once President Trump officially takes office.
Currently, many countries are directly affected by the new tax policies of the US President. The risk of a trade war has been identified. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), stated that at present, international trade is threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. Instead of opening up and reducing barriers, this ideology aims to erect more barriers and impose high taxes on imported goods. In addition, many countries use non-tariff measures such as licenses and quotas.
Most recently, upon returning to the White House for a second term, President Donald Trump immediately used tariffs as one of the main tools to reshape economic and foreign policy towards other countries.
What scenarios should we respond to?
At the regular Government meeting in January 2025 (held on February 5, 2025), Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh noted that the global and regional situation is highly unpredictable, directly impacting Vietnam, especially its exports. The Prime Minister requested a thorough forecast and analysis of the situation in February and the coming period, particularly regarding new and emerging issues, such as the potential for a global trade war, which could disrupt supply chains and narrow export markets. Based on this analysis, solutions should be proposed to respond promptly and avoid being caught off guard.
At the same time, the Prime Minister suggested several solutions such as continuing to focus on renewing traditional growth drivers and promoting new growth drivers; continuing to expand and diversify markets, products, and supply chains, especially new markets such as the Middle East and South America…
At the Ministry of Industry and Trade's New Year meeting, Minister Nguyen Hong Dien also assessed that, in the context of the complex and unpredictable developments in the global economy and politics, the entire industry needs to continue focusing on effectively exploiting existing markets, while simultaneously promoting negotiations, signing agreements, and opening up new markets, contributing to supporting businesses in diversifying markets, products, supply chains, and boosting exports.
Previously, as soon as information emerged about the US President-elect Donald Trump and predictions of using import tariffs as a powerful tool to attract investment back to the US, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also presented two scenarios to respond to this event. According to these scenarios, the optimistic one is that the US maintains its current tariff policy on Vietnamese goods, and Vietnam will benefit as investment flows shift, leading to a shift in supply chains. In that case, Vietnam could fully attract investment to increase its advantage as a top 20 exporting nation in the world.
In the second scenario, if stricter tariffs are imposed, they could impact the global economy, potentially affecting Vietnam's exports to some extent. If the Chinese market – a major partner of the United States – faces difficulties due to tariffs, it will also create pressure in the United States and impact Vietnam. Under this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider reporting to the Government to support manufacturing and exporting businesses in diversifying their markets in the future.
Source: https://baophapluat.vn/viet-nam-chuan-bi-kich-ban-ung-pho-voi-kha-nang-xay-ra-chien-tranh-thuong-mai-post539082.html
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